Basic Senate Data

Here's some basic data regarding the nine senate races (8 Republican and 1 Democratic) which are currently on my radar. I'll probably go back and add some basic explanation for each race at some later date.

Virginia

Incumbent: Sen. John Warner (Retiring after five terms) (OPEN SEAT)
Candidates: Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D) vs. Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R)
2002 Result: Warner (R) 82.6% Spannaus (I) 9.7% Hornberger (L) 7.1%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Republican 7.1%
Polling: Warner 57% Gilmore 37% (Rasmussen 2/21/08)
Cash on Hand: Warner 2.9 Million Gilmore 200,000
Rating: Likely Democratic
Ranking: 1st on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Warner by 12-14%

New Mexico

Incumbent: Sen. Pete Domenici (Retiring after six terms) (OPEN SEAT)
Candidates: Rep. Tom Udall (D) vs. Rep. Heather Wilson or Rep. Stevan Pearce (R)
2002 Result: Domenici (R) 65% Tristani (D) 35%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Democratic .6%
Polling: Udall 58% Wilson 30/Udall 53% Pearce 31% (New Mexico State 2/11/08)
Cash on Hand: Udall 1.7 Million Wilson 1.1 Million Pearce 800K
Rating: Leans Democratic
Ranking: 2rd on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Udall by 5-7%


New Hampshire

Incumbent: Sen. John Sununu (Running for a second term)
Candidates: Fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Sen. John Sununu (R)
2002 Result: Sununu (R) 50.9% Shaheen (D) 46.4%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Democratic 1.0%
Polling: Shaheen 49% Sununu 41% (Rasmussen 3/21/08)
Cash on Hand: Sununu 3.4 Million Shaheen 1.1 Million
Rating: Leans Democratic
Ranking: 3rd on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Shaheen by 4-6%


Colorado

Incumbent: Sen. Wayne Allard (Retiring after two terms) (OPEN SEAT)
Candidates: Rep. Mark Udall (D) vs. Fmr. Rep. Bob Schaffer (R)
2002 Result: Allard* (R) 50.7% Strickland (D) 45.8%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Republican 5.6%
Polling: Udall 46% Schaffer 43% (Rasmussen 3/18/08)
Cash on Hand: Udall 3.6 Million Schaffer 1.5 Million
Rating: Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up
Ranking: 4th on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Udall by 1-3%

Minnesota

Incumbent: Sen. Norm Coleman (Running for a second term)
Candidates: Sen. Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (DFL)
2002 Result: Coleman (R) 49.5% Mondale (DFL) 47.3%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Democratic Farmer-Labor 3.9%
Polling: Coleman 48% Franken 46% (Rasmussen 3/18/08)
Cash on Hand: Coleman 6 Million Franken 3.1 Million
Rating: Tilts Republican/Toss-Up
Ranking: 5th on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Coleman by 2-4%

Oregon

Incumbent: Sen. Gordon Smith (Running for a third term)
Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R) vs. Speaker Jeff Merkley or Steve Novick (D)
2002 Result: Smith* (R) 56.2% Bradbury (D) 39.6%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Democratic 3.3%
Polling: Smith 48% Merkley 30%/Smith 48% Novick 35% (Rasmussen 2/19/08)
Cash on Hand: Smith 4.4 Million Merkley 500K Novick 300K
Rating: Leans Republican
Ranking: 6th on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Smith by 5-7%

Maine

Incumbent: Sen. Susan Collins (Running for a third term)
Candidates: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Rep. Tom Allen (D)
2002 Result: Collins* (R) 58.4% Pingree (D) 41.6%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Democratic 8.0%
Polling: No Recent Polling
Cash on Hand: Collins 3.9 Million Allen 2.5 Million
Rating: Heavily Leans Republican
Ranking: 7th on Democratic Target List
% Prediction: Collins by 8-10%

Alaska

Incumbent: Sen. Ted Stevens (Running for a seventh full term)
Candidates: Sen. Ted Stevens (R) vs. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D)
2002 Result: Stevens* (R) 78.2% Vondersaar (D) 10.5% Sykes (G) 7.2%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Republican 27.3%
Polling: No Recent Polling
Cash on Hand: Stevens 1.1 Million Begich No Report Filled
Rating: Heavily Leans Republican
Ranking: 8th on Democratic Target List
It’s Not a Dump Truck: It’s a Series of Tubes
Why?: Beats me
% Prediction: Stevens by 10-12%

Louisiana

Incumbent: Sen. Mary Landrieu (Running for a third term)
Candidates: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Treasurer John Kennedy (R)
2002 Result: Landrieu* (D) 51.7% Terrell (R) 48.3%
2000/2004 Average PVI: Republican 10.1%
Polling: No Recent Polling
Cash on Hand: Landrieu 4.1 Million Kennedy No Report Filled
Rating: Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up
Ranking: 1st on Republican Target List
% Prediction: Landrieu by 1-3%

House Rankings 3.25.08

And here's the house ratings. Still too early in the cycle to get a real feel for which way the various house races are going to break, but it looks as though it's more likely than not that Nancy Pelosi will hold on to the speaker's gavel for a second term. Although Republican chances are certainly better in the lower chamber than in the Senate.

House (+2 DEM)

Update 4/2/08: New York 25th moved from Leans Republican to Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Current House: 233-198 DEM with 4 (1 DEM, 3 GOP) vacancies (+17 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof House: +56 DEM or +89 GOP
Projected House: 236-199 DEM (+2 DEM)
Narrow Range: +6 DEM (240-195 DEM) to SQ (234-201 DEM)
Medium Range: +16 DEM (250-185 DEM) to +15 GOP (219-216 DEM)
Wide Range: +20 DEM (254-181 DEM) to +17 GOP (218-217 GOP)
Pundit Spread: +3 DEM (Cook +6 DEM, Crawford +2-3 DEM, Sabato +3 DEM, Rothenberg SQ-+1 GOP)
Current Vacancies:
Republican:Louisiana 1st (Bobby Jindal-Elected Governor of Louisiana)
Louisiana 6th (Richard Baker-Resigned)
Mississippi 1st (Roger Wicker-Appointed to United States Senate)
Democratic:Maryland 4th (Al Wynn-Resigned)
Likelihood of Turnover: 15%


Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

New Mexico 1st, New York 25th

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (4)

Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Virginia 11th, Arizona 1st

Leans Republican (9)

Ohio 16th, New Jersey 7th, North Carolina 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Washington 8th, Connecticut 4th, Illinois 10th, Nevada 3rd, Alaska At-Large

Heavily Leans Republican (4)

Ohio 1st, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Colorado 4th

Likely Republican (6)

Ohio 2nd, Michigan 9th, California 4th, Florida 13th, Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 6th

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (14)

Oregon 5th, Kansas 2nd, Texas 22nd, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, Illinois 14th*, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Ohio 18th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th.

Heavily Leans Democratic (2)

Indiana 9th, New York 19th

Likely Democratic (5)

Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Arizona 8th, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 2nd

* Seat changed hands from Republican to Democratic on March 8th, 2008 after Bill Foster's victory in a special election for the remainder of Dennis Hastert's term.

Senate Rankings 3.25.08

Managed to get the Senate Rankings done at least. I might go back tomorrow and add in commentary, but the numbers should make one thing clear, the Democrats are
heavily favored to successfully defend the upper chamber.

Senate (+4 DEM)

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM* (GOP +1 with GOP Presidential Victory, +2 with DEM Presidential Victory, needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Filibuster-Proof Senate: +9 DEM or +11 GOP
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof Senate: +16 DEM, mathematically impossible for GOP
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (56-44 DEM) to +2 DEM (53-47 DEM)
Medium Range: +6 DEM (57-43 DEM) to +2 DEM (53-47 DEM)
Wide Range: +8 DEM (59-41 DEM) to S.Q. (51-49 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +3 DEM (Cook +3 DEM, Crawford +3-4 DEM, Sabato +3 DEM, Rothenberg +3 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 2%
* While the partisan breakdown in the Senate is 49-49-2 since both Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) are members of the Democratic Caucus, I have counted them as such for our purposes.

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Virginia

Leans Democratic (2)

New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (1)

Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (1)

Minnesota

Leans Republican (1)

Oregon

Heavily Leans Republican (2)

Maine, Alaska

Potentially Competitive (4)

Mississippi (Special), North Carolina, Kentucky, Nebraska

Safe (6)

Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Idaho

Live Boy/Dead Girl Territory (5)

South Carolina, Mississippi (Full), Kansas, Wyoming (Full), Wyoming (Special)



Democratic Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (1)

Louisiana

Safe (4)

South Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, West Virginia

Live Boy/Dead Girl Territory (7)

Arkansas, Iowa, Michigan, Delaware, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts

Another New Blog

Well, this is blog attempt #3 and #2 on Blogger. While my Livejournal site is still alive and well, Blogger is more functional and better suited for my purposes. Plus it allows me to use colored type, which is a useful feature, at least for a subject that attempts to divide America into blue and red teams. Since Blogger ate my first site, or at least has decided that I should not be allowed to submit new posts, it was time to start another blog. Anyway, I hope to have a Big Board up sometime tomorrow, maybe even late tonight if I decide to skip on the commentary.

I should add one bit of warning about my prognostication. In case, you don't know me personally (and if you don't why are you reading the political predictions of some random graduate student) I should state for the record that I am a Democrat (and a partisan one at that). While I'll do my best to remove any personal bias, I'm only human and my political preferences will undoubtedly slip through. Granted, my predictions in 2006 were more or less dead on (right in margin with the House, right in margin and individual seats in the Senate, and one off with Governorships). However, even I'm not particularly sure if that result was because I managed to set aside my partisan views or if the field was just so favorable to the DEMS, that even azure colored glasses weren't enough to warp my predictions. Guess I'll find out when everyone else does.