Sunday, June 29, 2008

Presidential Projection 6/29/08



Obama 338 (53.7) McCain 200 (45.3)


Switches from last week: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +2.0

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 320-218 Obama

Wide Range: 455-83 Obama to 310-228 McCain

Base Support: 228-83 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 333-205 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (+8.4 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

State by State Projections

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C. Vermont, Illinois, Hawaii

Solid Democratic (127)

New York, California, Massachusetts, Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Washington

Likely Democratic (70)

Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Leans Democratic (92)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado, Florida

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (18)

Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (11)

Missouri

Leans Republican (106)

North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota

Likely Republican (50)

Montana, Mississippi, Alaska, South Dakota, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid Republican (28)

Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabam

Safe Republican (5)

Utah

1 comment:

Unknown said...

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Link: http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm

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Mark
3BlueDudes.com