Presidential Projection 6/22/08

Obama 338 (52.7) McCain 200 (46.3)

Switches from last week: +45 Obama

McCain to Obama: Florida, Virginia, Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: Obama +1.6

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 409-129 Obama to 313-225 McCain

Base Support: 225-129 Obama

State by State Polling Only: 316-222 Obama

Projection is based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (52.7-46.3 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

Safe Democratic (62)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York

Solid Democratic (85)

Hawaii, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, California

Likely Democratic (78)

Washington, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

Leans Democratic (68)

Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Michigan, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (45)

Florida, Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (11)

Missouri

Leans Republican (60)

North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina

Likely Republican (96)

Louisiana, Texas, Montana, South Dakota, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arizona, North Dakota, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky

Solid Republican (21)

Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma

Safe Republican (12)

Wyoming, Idaho, Utah