Presidential Projection 7/7/08

Obama 306 (51.9) McCain 232 (47.1)


Switches from last week: +32 McCain

Obama to McCain: Nevada, Florida
McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: +3.6 McCain

Narrow Range: 338-200 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 399-139 Obama to 345-193 McCain

Base Support: 193-139 Obama

State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama

Current Likelihood of Turnover: 65.8% (Tilts Obama)

Projection is based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+4.8 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (66)

D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, Hawaii, New York

Solid Obama (88)

Massachusetts, Connecticut, California, Maine, Maryland

Likely Obama (39)

Washington, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota

Leans Obama (100)

New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (13)

Virginia

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (32)

Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (61)

Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas

Likely McCain (106)

West Virginia, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota, Alaska, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid McCain (28)

Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

Safe McCain (5)

Utah