Tuesday, May 13, 2008

West Virginia Democratic Primary/Mississippi 1st Special Election

West Virginia Democratic Primary 100% Reporting

Clinton 239,062 (67%)
Obama 91,652 (26%)

Popular Vote Margin: Clinton +147,410

Mississippi 1st Special Election 100% Reporting (DEM GAIN)

Childers (D) 57,276 (53.7%)
Davis (R) 49,314 (46.3%)

West Virginia Exit Polls (Second Wave)

Clinton 64 (64.2)
Obama 32 (31.8)

West Virginia Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 20 (16)
Obama 8 (7)

10:14 PM:The AP and Clarion Ledger have called the Mississippi 1st for Childers.
10:05 PM: And the race narrows yet again, with Childers lead now down to 700 votes, however Desoto county is now fully reported, removing Davis's surest stronghold from the remaining calculation.
10:00 PM: Childers is starting to pull away as Davis now needs roughly 61% of the outstanding vote with Childers' base county still out. While I wouldn't call the race if I was manning any decision desks in Northern Mississippi, it's starting to look like I'll be wrong in my prediction.
9:50 PM: Childers has lead throughout the entire night but Davis has closed to within three points. The baselines from three weeks ago have not held firm tonights, with counties flipping from blue to red and vice versa. However, Childers base is still out while 27 out of DeSoto's 38 precincts have reported. Still far too close to call.
9:15 PM: DeSoto has started to report but only at a 3:1 clip for Davis compared to the 5:1 ratio earlier, also while roughly one third of DeSoto's votes are in, Prentiss (Childers' home county) is still out.
9:05 PM: Childers has jumped out to an early lead, but appears to be underperforming in Democratic leaning counties compared to three weeks ago. Also DeSoto county (Davis's base which went for him 5-1 in the first election) still has yet to report.
7:39 PM: As expected MSNBC called the West Virginia Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton as soon as the polls closed. The final margin is the real question, although I'm not particularly convinced that even a 90-10 victory would provide Hillary much of a lifeline. As for me, I'm going to focus the majority of my attention upon the Mississippi Special Election which I personally think tilts towards the Republican Greg Davis despite Travis Childers 49-46 win in the initial election back in April. Still, I'd rather be wrong than right in this case as a third straight Democratic special election victory in Republican tuft, this time in a double digit district with a top tier GOP candidate would be a positive auger heading into November.


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