Monday, May 5, 2008

Indiana/North Carolina Polling Update

While my party continues down the road to its eventual seppuku, here's the polling data from North Carolina and Indiana which indicate that this crap is going to drag out for another month. For the curious, the polling data is from Real Clear Politics, a conservative leaning site which posts new data slightly more frequently than its liberal equivalent Pollster.com. (Although there is still debate as to whether Pollster's graphing or RCP's simple averaging is more accurate). However, the one major difference between RCP and my numbers is that I throw out the highest and lowest polling "scores" for each candidate in an attempt to fully neutralize any outliers. I should be back tomorrow with more live blogging and perhaps angry vulgarity.

Indiana Democratic Primary Polling

Clinton 49(49.3)(42-54)

Obama 44(43.7)(42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (SurveyUSA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)


Clinton 53 (53.0)

Obama 47 (47.0)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 49 (49.4)(48-53)
Clinton 43(42.8)(40-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +10 (Public Policy Polling)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (53.6)

Clinton 46 (46.4)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Obama 62

Clinton 53

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