House Rankings 5/16/08

House (+7 DEM)

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for a Veto-Proof Majority: +54 DEM or +91 GOP
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)
Narrow Range: +12 DEM (248-187 DEM) to S.Q. (236-199 DEM)
Medium Range: +22 DEM (258-177 DEM) to +14 GOP (222-213 DEM)
Wide Range: +27 DEM (263-172 DEM) to +20 GOP (219-216 GOP)
Likelihood of Turnover: 5%

Current Vacancy

Democratic

Maryland 4th-Al Wynn Resigned (6/17/08-Safe DEM)

Changes from last update:

GOP Hold to DEM Gain: New York 13th, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th
GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Texas 22nd
DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Mississippi 1st

Republican Defenses (199)

Heavily Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Leans Democratic (3)

New Jersey 3rd, Virginia 11th, New York 25th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)

New York 13th, Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Ohio 16th, New Jersey 7th, New York 26th

Leans Republican (10)

Washington 8th, Connecticut 4th, Alaska AL, North Carolina 8th, Illinois 10th, Michigan 7th, Louisiana 4th, Nevada 3rd, New York 29th, Ohio 1st

Heavily Leans Republican (5)

Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, Colorado 4th, Pennsylvania 6th, Ohio 2nd

Likely Republican (5)

Florida 13th, Illinois 6th, Pennsylvania 18th, West Virginia 2nd, New Mexico 2nd

Potentially Competitive (13)

Florida 24th, Missouri 9th, California 4th, Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Florida 8th, Minnesota 6th, Illinois 18th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 15th, Florida 21st, Nevada 2nd

Currently Safe (154)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)

Alabama 5th, Mississippi 1st

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

Texas 22nd, Kansas 2nd

Leans Democratic (11)

Louisiana 6th, Oregon 5th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Florida 16th, Georgia 8th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 2oth

Heavily Leans Democratic (5)

Indiana 9th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 14th, Kentucky 3rd, Minnesota 1st

Likely Democratic (2)

Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th

Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 8th, New York 19th, Texas 23rd, Kansas 3rd, Georgia 12th, Indiana 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 11th, Indiana 2nd, North Carolina 11th

Currently Safe (204)