Senate Rankings 4.28.09 (Snarlin' Arlen Special Edition)

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 60-40 DEM (+11 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 61-39 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+5 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+5 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-35-6 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 62-38 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 4 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 5 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 7 GOP 5

Switches from Last Update:

Pennsylvania: GOP HOLD to DEM HOLD

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of six to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of four to six seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (3)
4. Florida (5)
5. Kentucky (6)
6. Connecticut (7)
7. North Carolina (8)
8. Pennsylvania (4)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: None

Senate Rankings 4.25.09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)