New York 20th Live Blog

New York 20th

Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%

100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)

Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)

10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)