U.S. House Big Board 4/23/08

U.S. House (+4 DEM)

Update: 4/23/08 5:25 PM: Arizona 1st moved from Tilts Republican to Tilts Democratic
Update: 5/1/08 2:50 PM: Louisiana 6th (Special) moved from Tilts Republican to Tilts Democratic

Update: 5/1/08 Added a new classification of Potentially Competitive
Update: 5/3/08 Louisiana 6th moved from Tilts Democratic Gain to Leans Democratic Defense, Current House has been updated to 234-199 DEM.
Update: 5/13/08 Mississippi 1st moved from Tilts Republican Defense to Leans Democratic Defense, Current House has been updated to 235-199 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof Majority: +54 DEM or +91 GOP
Projected House: 240-195 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +7 DEM (243-192 DEM) to S.Q. (236-199 DEM)
Medium Range: +17 DEM (253-182 DEM) to +14 GOP (222-213 DEM)
Wide Range: +22 DEM (258-177 DEM) to +19 GOP (218-217 GOP)
Pundit Spread: +4 DEM (Cook +5 DEM, Crawford +4 DEM, Sabato +4 DEM, Rothenberg +4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%
Current Vacancies:

Democratic

Maryland 4th-Al Wynn Resigned (6/17/08-Safe DEM)

Breakdown

Republican Defenses (199)

Heavily Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Leans Democratic (1)

New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (4)

Virginia 11th, New York 25th, Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Ohio 16th

Leans Republican (8)

New Jersey 7th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, North Carolina 8th, Illinois 10th, Connecticut 4th, Alaska At-Large, Nevada 3rd

Heavily Leans Republican (5)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Michigan 7th, Louisiana 4th, Colorado 4th

Likely Republican (6)

Ohio 2nd, Michigan 9th, California 4th, Missouri 6th, Alabama 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Potentially Competitive (27)

Safe Republican (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Leans Republican (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (13)

Oregon 5th, Kansas 2nd, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Illinois 14th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 4th, Louisiana 6th, Mississippi 1st

Heavily Leans Democratic (4)

Indiana 9th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, New York 19th

Likely Democratic (6)

Texas 23rd, Minnesota 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Connecticut 2nd, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th

Potentially Competitive (18)

Safe Democratic (193)

Pennsylvania DEM Primary and Mississippi 1st Special Election

Pennsylvania Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 84
Obama 74

Pennsylvania Results (99% Reporting, 1:50 PM 4/23/08 )

Clinton 1,258,947 (54.7%)
Obama 1,043,044 (45.3%)

Pennsylvania Exit Polling (Second Wave Updated 9:47 PM)

Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

Mississippi 1st Special (100% Reporting, 1:59 AM)

Childers 33,138 (49.4%)
Davis 31,066 (46.3%)

10:43 PM
A late push by Childers has made things interesting but it looks like he'll end up a few hundred votes short of the runoff line, barring a major surprise in the remaining 1% of the vote yet to report.

10:14 PM
And it looks like we're going to a runoff in Mississippi on the 13th and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Childers will end up in the first position closing back to within 500 votes of Davis. Regardless Davis will start off as the favorite in three weeks, albeit as a narrower one that a few hours ago. And Hillary is about to start speaking so I might have to take a couple of vomit breaks at some point.

9:41PM
And after getting my hopes up earlier in the evening, Mississippi has appeared to return to form with Davis pulling ahead by seven points. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has appeared to solidify at 53-47 which is big enough that Hillary can claim victory while still being small enough that it doesn't really do her a whole hell of a lot of good in the long run.

9:32 PM
Speaking of vote dumps, evidently the Republican one finally came through in Mississippi as Davis has pulled ahead for the first time tonight. Davis is currently over the 50% line by 71 votes

9:26 PM
It's becoming apparent that barring any major vote dumps in Republican areas, Childers will finish 1st in the Mississippi 1st. Whether or not he can stay over the 50% barrier and pull off the upset is a much dicier proposition. The margin in Pennsylvania stays around 6% or so as I've pretty much given up on MSNBC for the time being

9:00PM

Childers is over the 50% barrier in Mississippi which would be a fairly major upset for the Democrats if he pulls this one off, although I'm not certain is this is simply the Democratic parts of the district dumping their votes early or if these early returns really mean something.

8:53PM
And evidently the primary three weeks ago in Mississippi was just for shits and giggles as the defeated candidates evidently stay on the ballot anyways, providing the chance that neither major candidate will receive 50% of the vote, meaning that they'll be another runoff election in three weeks, and maybe this time the losers won't stay on the ballot. As for Pennsylvania Obama continues to narrow but this appears to be a result of Philadelphia starting to report en masse more than any sign of a real closing movement.

8:50PM
MSNBC has called the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton, I suppose the margin is the real question now.

8:38 PM
As early numbers start to trickle in from Pennsylvania, MSNBC has switched their projection from "too close to call" to "too early to call" essentially setting Senator Clinton as more likely than to win the Pennsylvania primary. Very early numbers show her up 65-35 but with only around 2,500 votes reporting such a gap is almost certain to dissipate. The real question is still whether or not she'll win by enough to make any real dent in Obama's delegate lead or at least revive her lagging fund raising totals.

8:25 PM
25 minutes in and still no hard data from the Keystone State or Northern Mississippi

8:04 PM
First exit polls from CNN show Hillary up four in Pennsylvania (52-48), if the rule of seven holds in this race, it portends a low double digit victory for the junior senator from New York, which is probably good enough for this to drag on into North Carolina and Indiana if not Denver

8:00PM
According to MSNBC the Pennsylvania DEM primary is too close to call, exit polling data coming shortly

7:54PM
Well since I would like an excuse to avoid working on the thesis for the rest of the night, I have decided to launch one of my typical live bloging exercises, which usually managed to draw a whopping audience in the low single digits. Then again, I guess only my friends are reading this anyways and only to see if I say something stupid and/or get angry drunk sometime during the night. Anyway, this evening’s major focus will be upon Pennsylvania and the first primary contest on the Democratic side since March 11th. However, I’m also planning on at least spending a few moments covering the special election in the Mississippi 1st where the Democrats have at least an outside chance of stealing away a typically safe Republican seat, albeit with a candidate to the right of most Republicans including his opponent. Also, I just wanted to add a couple of points of warning for anyone supporting Senator Obama who is reading this blog.

1. Contrary to the norm throughout the rest of the country, in Pennsylvania the big cities typically report their returns first with rural areas not submitting their vote count until around 11PM. The best-known example being the 2004 US Senate Race when Joe Hoeffel jumped out to a fifteen point lead on Arlen Specter simply due to Philadelphia dumping all of their votes early in the evening, while eventually losing by eleven. Therefore, if Senator Obama jumps out to an early lead, it is not necessarily a sign that he is about to pull off an upset victory as much as friendly areas reporting first. And if Hillary has a lead by 9 PM, it’s probably a sign that we’re going to have a short night

2. While I’ll still be reporting exit poll results as soon as they are posted, the exits have consistently skewed in favor of Obama by 7 to 8 points throughout this primary season. Therefore, a three-point lead for Obama is probably, although again not necessarily, a four-point lead for Hillary.

Anyways on that note, I’ll leave everyone with the latest polling averages from Real Clear Politics (with the addition of throwing out the lowest and highest polling results for each candidate) as well as a mini capsule for the Mississippi 1st. As of right now, Hillary has a seven-point lead in the aggregate which sounds about right to me. I’ll be back with exit polling data a little after eight.

Clinton 50 48-51
Obama 43 41-44

Mississippi 1st

Incumbent: Vacant (Roger Wicker appointed to United States Senate)
Candidates: Greg Davis (R) vs. Travis Childers (D)
2006 Result: Wicker* (R) 66% Hurt (D) 34%
District PVI: R+10
Polling: No Recent Polling
Rating: Heavily Leans Republican
% Prediction: Davis by 8%