Presidential Projection Final

Election Day (more or less)

Election Night Live Blog

Final Predictions

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +26 DEM

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-157-70

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

(70 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from November 1st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 381-157

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 396-142

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Long Story Short: Assuming that the polling data is even remotely accurate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States, winning at least 291 electoral votes.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%) (132)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Vermont, Delaware, California, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%) (58)

Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Oregon, Maine, Washington

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%) (74)

Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%) (47)

Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%) (53)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%) (17)

Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%) (25)

Georgia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%) (90)

South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%) (9)

Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%+) (33)

Nebraska, Alabama, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 12.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Nevada-Obama 5.9%
5. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 1.9%
8. Missouri-Obama .4%
9. North Carolina-Obama .1%
10. Indiana-McCain 1%
11. Montana-McCain 2.8%
12. North Dakota-McCain 3%
13. Georgia-McCain 4.4%
14. Arizona-McCain 5.1%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 8.9%