Obama vs McCain 5/25/08

Obama 293
McCain 245

Changes from Last Week

Obama to McCain: Nevada
McCain to Obama: New Hampshire

Swing in raw popular vote from last week: McCain +1.0
Swing in projected popular vote from last week: McCain +1.0

Projections based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (50.7-48.3 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling. Projection is intended as a possibility of the election's outcome if held today and not a final prediction

Current Projections

Safe Democratic (27)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois

Solid Democratic (68)

Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut

Likely Democratic (105)

California, Maine, New Jersey, Washington, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (60)

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (33)

New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (5)

Nevada

Leans Republican (51)

Florida, Virginia, Missouri

Likely Republican (133)

North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Louisiana, Georgia, Montana, Tennessee, South Dakota, Arizona, North Dakota

Solid Republican (37)

Mississippi, Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Alabama

Safe Republican (19)

Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah

Based on State to State Polling Only

Obama 289
McCain 249

Bush to Obama: Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio
Kerry to McCain: New Hampshire

Daily Polling Update 5/22/08

Projected Popular Vote: Obama +4.8

Obama 51.9
McCain 47.1
Others 1.0

Raw Popular Vote: Obama +4.5

Obama 47.8 (47-49)
McCain 43.3 (40-46)

Tracking Polls Only

McCain 45
Obama 45

Raw Polling Data

Obama 47-44 (Gallup Tracking 5/17-5/21)
McCain 46-42 (Rasmussen Tracking 5/18-5/21)
Obama 48-40 (Reuters/Zogby 5/15-5/18)
Obama 48-37 (IBD/TIPP 5/12-5/18)
Obama 48-46 (Democracy Corps 5/13-5/15)
Obama 49-47 (Battleground 5/11-5/14)
Obama 47-40 (Quinnipiac 5/8-5/12)
Obama 51-44 (ABC/Washington Post 5/8-5/11)

Thrown Out Numbers

High: Obama 51, McCain 47
Low: Obama 42, McCain 37

Daily Presidential Polling Update 5/21/08

Sorry for not having done one of these daily updates in a long time, but the combination of a hard drive failure and a paucity of polling data threw up a temporary roadblock. Anyway, since looking over old election data from presidential campaigns in the past revealed that even in "two-way" races the various minor candidates still earn a single percentage point for their combined efforts. Therefore I've factored in this third party effect in the projected popular vote by setting aside 1% (sometimes .9% or 1.1% due to rounding) for spoiler candidates. For the time being this total includes both former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr, the likely Libertarian nominee, and Ralph Nader. If any third party candidate reaches three percent in the national averages I'll start including them separately, albeit with penalties factored in to compensate for the tendency of independent candidates to over-poll.

Also, I've decided that if there are five or less polls in the Real Clear Politics averages, I will simply use those numbers to determine the projected popular vote instead of throwing out the high and low numbers. However if there are six or more polls in the current database, I will continued removing those numbers. 

Projected Popular Vote: Obama +4.6

Obama  51.8

McCain 47.2

Others      1.0

Raw Popular Vote: Obama +4.2

Obama  47.5 (47-48)

McCain 43.3 (40-45)

Tracking Polls Only

Obama  46

McCain 45

Raw Polling Data

Obama 48-40 (Reuters/Zogby 5/15-5/18)

Obama 47-44 (Gallup Tracking 5/16-5/20)

McCain 45-44 (Rasmussen Tracking 5/17-5/20)

Obama 48-46 (Democracy Corps 5/13-5/15)

Obama 47-40 (Quinnipiac 5/8-5/12)

Obama 51-44 (ABC/Washington Post 5/8-5/11)

Thrown Out Numbers

Obama:  51 (ABC/Washington Post), 44 (Rasmussen Tracking)

McCain: 46 (Democracy Corps), 40 (Reuters/Zogby)

Kentucky/Oregon Live Blogging/Reporting

Kentucky Democratic Primary-100% Reporting

Clinton 459,145 65% 

Obama  209,771 30%

Popular Vote Margin: Clinton +249,374

Oregon Democratic Primary-92% Reporting

Obama  344,410 59%

Clinton 242,266 41%

Projected Popular Vote Margin: Obama +111,000

Kentucky Democratic Primary Exit Polling

Clinton 65 

Obama 29

Kentucky Democratic Primary Delegate Count

Clinton 37 

Obama 14

Oregon Democratic Primary Projected Delegate Count

Obama  31 (29)

Clinton 21 (19)

6:29 PM: While the polls don't formally close in Kentucky until 7 PM EST, early numbers from counties in the eastern time zone appear to certify the large margin for Clinton, although Obama appears to be doing well in Lexington and will at least win a couple of counties which is more than he could say about West Virginia.

6:31 PM: The numbers have closed considerably in the last couple of minutes but Jefferson County, home of Louisville, and considered to be on of the few counties which Obama has even a small chance of carrying has reported about 30% of its results. In short, this is probably as close as Obama is going to get all night. 

6:55 PM: While Obama is now within three points it appears that all of Jefferson county is reporting before the rest of the state. Still this bodes well for him reaching the 33-18 split which was considered Obama's best case scenario in Kentucky heading into tonight.

7:00 PM: MSNBC has called the Kentucky Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton.

Democratic Primary Polling Update

Kentucky Democratic Primary

Clinton 59 (58.7)
Obama 30 (30.3)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Clinton 66
Obama 34

Projected Delegate Allocation

Clinton 34
Obama 17

Oregon Democratic Primary

Obama 53 (53.3)
Clinton 40 (40.3)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 57 (56.9)
Clinton 43 (43.1)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Obama 30
Clinton 22

Current Delegate Count + Projected 5/20 Totals (2,025 to win)

Obama 1917+47  1964
Clinton 1720+56 1776

Current Delegate Count with Florida and Michigan + Projected (2,210 to win)

Obama     1996+47  2043

Clinton     1913+56  1969

Uncommitted 55

Obama vs McCain 5/18/08

Obama 294
McCain 244

Changes from last week

Obama to McCain: New Hampshire
McCain to Obama: None

Swing in raw popular vote from last week: McCain +.3
Swing in projected popular vote from last week: McCain +.2

Projections based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.7-48.3 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling. Projection is intended as a possibility of the election's outcome if held today and not a final prediction.

State by State Projection (Colored Bold indicates change from 2004)

Safe Democratic (27)

D.C., Vermont, Illinois

Solid Democratic (68)

Rhode Island, Hawaii, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts

Likely Democratic (105)

Maine, California, New Jersey, Washington, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (60)

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (34)

Nevada, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (31)

New Hampshire, Florida

Leans Republican (24)

Virginia, Missouri

Likely Republican (139)

North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, West Virginia, Indiana, Louisiana, Montana, Georgia, Tennessee, Arizona, South Dakota, Mississippi, North Dakota

Solid Republican (31)

Alaska, Kansas, Kentucky, Nebraska, Alabama

Safe Republican (18)

Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah

Senate Rankings 5/16/08

Senate (+4 DEM)

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (GOP +1 with Presidential Victory, +2 with DEM Presidential Victory, needed for takeover)
Seats for Filibuster Proof Majority: +9 DEM or +11 GOP
Seats for Veto-Proof Majority: +16 DEM, mathematically impossible for GOP
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (56-44 DEM) to +3 DEM (54-46 DEM)
Medium Range: +6 DEM (57-43 DEM) to S.Q. (51-49 DEM)
Wide Range: +8 DEM (59-41 DEM) to S.Q. (51-49 DEM)
Possibility of Turnover: 1%

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Minnesota

Leans Republican

Oregon

Heavily Leans Republican

Alaska, Maine

Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Texas, Mississippi (Special)

12 seats are currently safe

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

11 seats are currently safe

House Rankings 5/16/08

House (+7 DEM)

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for a Veto-Proof Majority: +54 DEM or +91 GOP
Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)
Narrow Range: +12 DEM (248-187 DEM) to S.Q. (236-199 DEM)
Medium Range: +22 DEM (258-177 DEM) to +14 GOP (222-213 DEM)
Wide Range: +27 DEM (263-172 DEM) to +20 GOP (219-216 GOP)
Likelihood of Turnover: 5%

Current Vacancy

Democratic

Maryland 4th-Al Wynn Resigned (6/17/08-Safe DEM)

Changes from last update:

GOP Hold to DEM Gain: New York 13th, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th
GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Texas 22nd
DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Mississippi 1st

Republican Defenses (199)

Heavily Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Leans Democratic (3)

New Jersey 3rd, Virginia 11th, New York 25th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)

New York 13th, Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Ohio 16th, New Jersey 7th, New York 26th

Leans Republican (10)

Washington 8th, Connecticut 4th, Alaska AL, North Carolina 8th, Illinois 10th, Michigan 7th, Louisiana 4th, Nevada 3rd, New York 29th, Ohio 1st

Heavily Leans Republican (5)

Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, Colorado 4th, Pennsylvania 6th, Ohio 2nd

Likely Republican (5)

Florida 13th, Illinois 6th, Pennsylvania 18th, West Virginia 2nd, New Mexico 2nd

Potentially Competitive (13)

Florida 24th, Missouri 9th, California 4th, Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Florida 8th, Minnesota 6th, Illinois 18th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 15th, Florida 21st, Nevada 2nd

Currently Safe (154)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)

Alabama 5th, Mississippi 1st

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (2)

Texas 22nd, Kansas 2nd

Leans Democratic (11)

Louisiana 6th, Oregon 5th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Florida 16th, Georgia 8th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 2oth

Heavily Leans Democratic (5)

Indiana 9th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 14th, Kentucky 3rd, Minnesota 1st

Likely Democratic (2)

Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th

Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 8th, New York 19th, Texas 23rd, Kansas 3rd, Georgia 12th, Indiana 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 11th, Indiana 2nd, North Carolina 11th

Currently Safe (204)

West Virginia Democratic Primary/Mississippi 1st Special Election

West Virginia Democratic Primary 100% Reporting

Clinton 239,062 (67%)

Obama 91,652 (26%)

Popular Vote Margin: Clinton +147,410

Mississippi 1st Special Election 100% Reporting (DEM GAIN)

Childers (D) 57,276 (53.7%)

Davis (R) 49,314 (46.3%)

West Virginia Exit Polls (Second Wave)

Clinton 64 (64.2)

Obama 32 (31.8)

West Virginia Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 20 (16)

Obama 8 (7)

10:14 PM:The AP and Clarion Ledger have called the Mississippi 1st for Childers.
10:05 PM: And the race narrows yet again, with Childers lead now down to 700 votes, however Desoto county is now fully reported, removing Davis's surest stronghold from the remaining calculation.
10:00 PM: Childers is starting to pull away as Davis now needs roughly 61% of the outstanding vote with Childers' base county still out. While I wouldn't call the race if I was manning any decision desks in Northern Mississippi, it's starting to look like I'll be wrong in my prediction.
9:50 PM: Childers has lead throughout the entire night but Davis has closed to within three points. The baselines from three weeks ago have not held firm tonights, with counties flipping from blue to red and vice versa. However, Childers base is still out while 27 out of DeSoto's 38 precincts have reported. Still far too close to call.
9:15 PM: DeSoto has started to report but only at a 3:1 clip for Davis compared to the 5:1 ratio earlier, also while roughly one third of DeSoto's votes are in, Prentiss (Childers' home county) is still out.
9:05 PM: Childers has jumped out to an early lead, but appears to be underperforming in Democratic leaning counties compared to three weeks ago. Also DeSoto county (Davis's base which went for him 5-1 in the first election) still has yet to report.
7:39 PM: As expected MSNBC called the West Virginia Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton as soon as the polls closed. The final margin is the real question, although I'm not particularly convinced that even a 90-10 victory would provide Hillary much of a lifeline. As for me, I'm going to focus the majority of my attention upon the Mississippi Special Election which I personally think tilts towards the Republican Greg Davis despite Travis Childers 49-46 win in the initial election back in April. Still, I'd rather be wrong than right in this case as a third straight Democratic special election victory in Republican tuft, this time in a double digit district with a top tier GOP candidate would be a positive auger heading into November.

Daily Polling Update 5/13/08

Polling Data from 4/30-5/12

Obama 48 (47.5) (46-51)

McCain 43 (43.2) (40-46)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 Split of undecided voters)

Obama  52 (52.3)

McCain 48 (47.7)

Tracking Polls Only

Obama  47

McCain 45

West Virginia Democratic Primary

Clinton 61 (61.3) 

Obama 24 (24.3)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Clinton 72 (71.6)

Obama 28 (28.4)

Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 20

Obama    8