British Election Projections 4.7.10

326 seats needed for a majority

Conservatives 314 (+106)
Labour 254 (-92)
Liberal Democrats 49 (-18)
Nationalists/Others 33 (+4)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservative Minority Government of 60 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition Government)

Really more of a late night test run than anything, but wanted to get the first one of these out of the way as I'm going to start putting out regular predictions for the British General Election on May 6th, in an attempt to fill the political downtime gap while waiting for the American midterm elections start to move into full gear.

Senate Rankings 3.10.10

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4.5 GOP
Pundit Over/Under: +4 GOP (Cook: +3.5 GOP, CQ: +4 GOP, Roll Call: +4 GOP, Sabato: +4.5 GOP)
Narrow Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of seven to nine seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Changes Since Last Update: Status Quo (+1 DEM, +1 GOP)

From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Indiana
From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Pennsylvania

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Delaware (Special), Indiana

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Nevada, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Pennsylvania, Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana

House Rankings 2.3.10

House: +14 GOP

Current House: 256-178 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+40 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+14 GOP)

Narrow Range: 230-205 DEM (+27 GOP) to 256-179 DEM (+1 GOP)

Wide Range: 228-207 GOP (+50 GOP) to 264-171 DEM (+7 DEM)

Spread: +14 GOP

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of twenty four to thirty seats

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of two seats to a Republican gain of four seats

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (4)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, Arkansas 2nd, Arkansas 1st

Tilts Republican/Tossup (13)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Maryland 1st, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 5th, Mississippi 1st, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Washington 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Pennsylvania 7th, Michigan 7th, New Hampshire 1st, Virginia 2nd, New Hampshire 2nd, Florida 24th, Nevada 3rd, Illinois 14th, New York 29th, New York 19th, New York 24th, New York 23rd

Leans Democratic (23)

Indiana 9th, Missouri 4th, Ohio 18th, South Carolina 5th, Arizona 5th, North Carolina 8th, Wisconsin 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Hawai'i 1st, New York 1st, Texas 17th, North Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 10th, Arizona 8th, New York 13th, Ohio 16th, New York 20th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 11th, Georgia 8th, South Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 17th, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Iowa 3rd, California 47th, West Virginia 1st, Virginia 9th, Colorado 3rd, Pennsylvania 8th, Tennessee 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (2)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware At-Large

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (8)

Pennsylvania 6th, Washington 8th, California 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 6th, Ohio 12th, California 44th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (3)

Minnesota 3rd, California 45th, Ohio 2nd

Senate Rankings 2.2.10

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4 GOP
Narrow Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of six to eight seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Delaware

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Colorado, Pennsylvania

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana

Senate Rankings 4.28.09 (Snarlin' Arlen Special Edition)

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 60-40 DEM (+11 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 61-39 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+5 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+5 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-35-6 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 62-38 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 4 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 5 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 7 GOP 5

Switches from Last Update:

Pennsylvania: GOP HOLD to DEM HOLD

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of six to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of four to six seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (3)
4. Florida (5)
5. Kentucky (6)
6. Connecticut (7)
7. North Carolina (8)
8. Pennsylvania (4)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: None

Senate Rankings 4.25.09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)

New York 20th Live Blog

New York 20th

Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%

100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)

Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)

10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)

Senate Rankings 2/26/09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Democratic Senate Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, North Dakota

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada

House Rankings 2/26/09

House: +2 GOP

Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats

House Vacancies

Democratic (3)

California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP

Republican (0)

Potential New Seats

District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Louisiana 2nd

Leans Republican (5)

Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)

Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th

Currently Safe (156)

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

New York 20th (Special)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st

Leans Democratic (17)

New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)

New York 19th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)

Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th

Currently Safe (214)

Senate Rankings 2.5.09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce

Republican Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota