House Rankings 2.3.10

House: +14 GOP

Current House: 256-178 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+40 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+14 GOP)

Narrow Range: 230-205 DEM (+27 GOP) to 256-179 DEM (+1 GOP)

Wide Range: 228-207 GOP (+50 GOP) to 264-171 DEM (+7 DEM)

Spread: +14 GOP

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of twenty four to thirty seats

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of two seats to a Republican gain of four seats

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (4)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, Arkansas 2nd, Arkansas 1st

Tilts Republican/Tossup (13)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Maryland 1st, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 5th, Mississippi 1st, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Washington 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Pennsylvania 7th, Michigan 7th, New Hampshire 1st, Virginia 2nd, New Hampshire 2nd, Florida 24th, Nevada 3rd, Illinois 14th, New York 29th, New York 19th, New York 24th, New York 23rd

Leans Democratic (23)

Indiana 9th, Missouri 4th, Ohio 18th, South Carolina 5th, Arizona 5th, North Carolina 8th, Wisconsin 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Hawai'i 1st, New York 1st, Texas 17th, North Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 10th, Arizona 8th, New York 13th, Ohio 16th, New York 20th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 11th, Georgia 8th, South Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 17th, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Iowa 3rd, California 47th, West Virginia 1st, Virginia 9th, Colorado 3rd, Pennsylvania 8th, Tennessee 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (2)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware At-Large

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (8)

Pennsylvania 6th, Washington 8th, California 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 6th, Ohio 12th, California 44th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (3)

Minnesota 3rd, California 45th, Ohio 2nd