House Rankings 2/26/09

House: +2 GOP

Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats

House Vacancies

Democratic (3)

California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP

Republican (0)

Potential New Seats

District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Louisiana 2nd

Leans Republican (5)

Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)

Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th

Currently Safe (156)

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

New York 20th (Special)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st

Leans Democratic (17)

New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)

New York 19th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)

Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th

Currently Safe (214)