Senate Rankings 2/26/09

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Democratic Senate Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, North Dakota

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada