Presidential Projection 8.25.08

Obama 273 (50.3) McCain 265 (48.7)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from August 16th: +20 McCain

Obama to McCain: Ohio

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since August 16th: +2.8 McCain

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 384-154 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-154

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (126)

New York, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Massachusetts

Likely Obama (43)

Maine, Maryland, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Obama (81)

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama (9)

Colorado

Tilts McCain (65)

Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (46)

Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Indiana

Likely McCain (87)

West Virginia, Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona, Mississippi

Solid McCain (52)

Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Nebraska, Idaho, Tennessee, Kansas

Safe McCain (15)

Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming

Presidential Projection 8/16/08

Obama 293 (51.7) McCain 245 (47.3)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from August 3rd: +5 McCain

Obama to McCain: Nevada

McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from August 3rd: +1 Obama

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 389-149 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-149

State by State Polling: Obama 296-242

Likelihood of Turnover: 60.5% (+.1%) (Tilts Obama)

Detailed State by State Prediction Data

Weekly Polling Data

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (136)

New York, Connecticut, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland

Likely Obama (33)

Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Obama (81)

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Orego, Minnesota, Iowa, New Mexico, Michigan, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (29)

Ohio, Colorado

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (45)

Nevada, Virginia, Florida

Leans McCain (51)

Montana, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (102)

Texas, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina, Alaska, Mississippi, Arizona, Tennessee, Louisiana

Solid McCain (35)

Kentucky, Kansas, Alabama, Wyoming, Nebraska, Idaho

Safe McCain (12)

Oklahoma, Utah

House Rankings 8.6.08

House: +7 DEM

Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+7 DEM)

Narrow Range: +2 GOP (234-201 DEM) to +20 DEM (256-179 DEM)

Wide Range: +19 GOP (218-217 GOP) to +36 DEM (272-161 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook: +9-10 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +6 DEM, Sabato: +7-8 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

Switches from July 23rd: +1 GOP

From DEM to GOP: Louisiana 6th

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (3)

New York 25th, Illinois 11th, Virginia 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (6)

Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th 

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (10)

Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Connecticut 4th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, Nevada 3rd, Alaska AL, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (16)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Louisiana 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 24th, Michigan 9th, Missouri 6th, Florida 21st, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Florida 8th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (14)

Wyoming AL, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 10th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Texas 10th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 2nd, Florida 25th, New Jersey 5th, California 50th

Currently Safe (143)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th, Louisiana 6th

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (3)

Kansas 2nd, Pennsylvania 10th, Florida 16th

Leans Democratic (14)

New Hampshire 1st, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 5th, Pennsylvania 4th, Mississippi 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New Hampshire 2nd, Pennsylvania 8th, Indiana 2nd

Currently Safe (204)

Senate Rankings 8/6/08

Senate: +5 DEM

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with McCain victory, +2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 56-44 DEM (+5 DEM)

Narrow Range: +5 DEM (56-44 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)

Wide Range: +1 DEM (52-48 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40 DEM)

Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +4 DEM)

Likelihood of Turnover: Nil

Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 2%

Switches from July 23rd: +1 DEM

From GOP to DEM: Alaska

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic

Virginia, New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Alaska, Colorado

Leans Republican

Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Kentucky

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 8.3.08

Capsule: I hope to have more detailed commentary and explanation of a couple new features up sometime tomorrow.

Obama 298 (51.2) McCain 240 (47.8)

With Tossups: Obama 264-200-74

Switches from July 23rd: +13 McCain

Obama to McCain: Virginia

McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 23rd: +1.6 McCain

Narrow Range: Obama 338-200 to McCain 274-264

Wide Range: Obama 381-157 to McCain 355-183

Base Support: Obama 183-157

State by State Polling: Obama 309-229

Likelihood of Turnover: 60.4% (-6.0%) (Tilts Obama)

Detailed State by State Prediction Data

Weekly Polling Data

Governor Rankings 7/23/08

Governors: +1 DEM

Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed to have a majority of governorships)
Projected Governorships: 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: +1 DEM (29-21 DEM) to +1 DEM (29-21 DEM)
Wide Range: +2 GOP (26-24 DEM) to +2 DEM (30-20 DEM)
Pundit Spread: S.Q. to +1 DEM (Cook S.Q. to +1 DEM, CQ S.Q. to +1 DEM, Sabato S.Q., Rothenberg +1 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%

Switches since June 9th: None

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic

Missouri

Leans Republican

Indiana

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Washington, North Carolina

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Delaware

House Ranking 7/23/08

House: +8 DEM

Current House: 236-199 DEM (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 244-191 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: +3 GOP (233-202 DEM) to +19 DEM (255-180 DEM)
Wide Range: +22 GOP (221-214 GOP) to +34 DEM (270-165 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook +9-10 DEM, CQ +6-7 DEM, Sabato +8 DEM, Rothenberg +5 DEM)
Likelihood of Takeover: 2%

Switches from June 15th: None

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (4)

Illinois 11th, New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Tilts Democratic/Toss Up (6)

Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 15th

Tilts Republican/Toss Up (9)

Ohio 16th, North Carolina 8th, Washington 8th, Alaska At-Large, New York 26th, Illinois 10th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, Colorado 4th

Leans Republican (15)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Nevada 3rd, Louisiana 4th, Michigan 9th, Florida 24th, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Florida 13th, Virginia 2nd, Alabama 2nd, New Mexico 2nd, Missouri 9th, Pennsylvania 6th, West Virginia 2nd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Florida 21st, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (13)

Wyoming At-Large, Florida 15th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Illinois 18th, Nevada 2nd, Maryland 1st, Idaho 1st, Kentucky 2nd, New Jersey 5th, California 50th, Virginia 10th

Safe Republican (145)

Democratic Defenses

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (2)

Alabama 5th, Texas 22nd

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (5)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th

Leans Democratic (15)

Mississippi 1st, Georgia 8th, Indiana 9th, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, New Hampshire 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Kentucky 3rd, Oregon 5th, Illinois 14th, Arizona 8th, Pennsylvania 11th, Minnesota 1st, Illinois 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Pennsylvania 8th, Kansas 3rd, Texas 23rd, Georgia 12th, New York 19th, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)

Indiana 8th, Ohio 18th, New Hampshire 2nd, Indiana 2nd

Safe Democratic (204)

Senate Rankings 7/23/08

Senate: +4 DEM

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM (+1 GOP with McCain Victory, +2 GOP with Obama Victory, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +4 DEM (55-45 DEM) to +5 DEM (56-44 DEM)
Wide Range: +1 DEM (52-48 DEM) to +9 DEM (60-40 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +4-5 DEM (Cook +5 DEM, CQ +4-5 DEM, Sabato +5 DEM, Rothenberg +3-4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: .5%
Likelihood of Democratic Filibuster Proof Majority: 1%

Switches from June 9th: None


Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic

Virginia, New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Mississippi (Special)

Leans Republican

Oregon, Minnesota, Alaska, Maine

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 7/23/08

Obama 311 (52) McCain 227 (47)

Note: Most Recent Projection (8/3/08) is located here.

Switches from July 7th: +5 Obama

McCain to Obama: Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 7th: +.2 Obama

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 413-125 Obama to 335-203 McCain

Base Support: 203-125 Obama

State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama

Obama's Best Bush ('04) State: Iowa

McCain's Best Kerry State: New Hampshire

Likelihood of Turnover: 66.4% (Tilts Obama)

Projection based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+5 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii

Solid Obama (136)

New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Maryland

Likely Obama (53)

Maine, Washington, Minnesota, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Leans Obama (90)

Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (18)

Nevada, Virginia

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (38)

Florida, Missouri

Leans McCain (74)

Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina

Likely McCain (88)

West Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid McCain (34)

Kansas, Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

Safe McCain (5)

Utah

Presidential Projection 7/7/08

Obama 306 (51.9) McCain 232 (47.1)


Switches from last week: +32 McCain

Obama to McCain: Nevada, Florida
McCain to Obama: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from last week: +3.6 McCain

Narrow Range: 338-200 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 399-139 Obama to 345-193 McCain

Base Support: 193-139 Obama

State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama

Current Likelihood of Turnover: 65.8% (Tilts Obama)

Projection is based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+4.8 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (66)

D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois, Hawaii, New York

Solid Obama (88)

Massachusetts, Connecticut, California, Maine, Maryland

Likely Obama (39)

Washington, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota

Leans Obama (100)

New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (13)

Virginia

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (32)

Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (61)

Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia, Arkansas

Likely McCain (106)

West Virginia, Texas, South Carolina, North Dakota, Alaska, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arizona, Kansas, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid McCain (28)

Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

Safe McCain (5)

Utah