Presidential Projection 7/23/08

Obama 311 (52) McCain 227 (47)

Note: Most Recent Projection (8/3/08) is located here.

Switches from July 7th: +5 Obama

McCain to Obama: Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from July 7th: +.2 Obama

Narrow Range: 349-189 Obama to 293-245 Obama

Wide Range: 413-125 Obama to 335-203 McCain

Base Support: 203-125 Obama

State by State Polling: 309-229 Obama

Obama's Best Bush ('04) State: Iowa

McCain's Best Kerry State: New Hampshire

Likelihood of Turnover: 66.4% (Tilts Obama)

Projection based upon the margin in the projected popular vote (+5 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling.

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

D.C., Vermont, Rhode Island, Hawaii

Solid Obama (136)

New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, California, Maryland

Likely Obama (53)

Maine, Washington, Minnesota, Delaware, Wisconsin, New Jersey

Leans Obama (90)

Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Toss-Up (18)

Nevada, Virginia

Tilts McCain/Toss-Up (38)

Florida, Missouri

Leans McCain (74)

Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, South Dakota, North Dakota, Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina

Likely McCain (88)

West Virginia, Texas, Mississippi, Alaska, Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky

Solid McCain (34)

Kansas, Alabama, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma

Safe McCain (5)

Utah