British Election Projections 4.28.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 272 (+64)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 96 (+29)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 54 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 368 (Majority of 86)
Lab/Lib 346 (Majority of 42)

Polling Averages

Conservatives 33.9%
Liberal Democrats 28.9%
Labour 27.8%

British Election Projection 4.22.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 114 (+47)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 seats short of a majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Popular Vote Averages

Conservatives 32.2%
Liberal Democrats 30.5%
Labour 26.7%

British Election Projections 4.21.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 253 (-93)
Liberal Democrats 111 (+44)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 short of a Majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Nationwide Polling Averages

Conservatives 32.4%
Liberal Democrats 30.1%
Labour 27.3%

British Election Projections 4.20.10

326 needed for a majority

Labour 265 (-81)
Conservatives 251 (+43)
Liberal Democrats 102 (+35)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Labour minority of 14. (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition).

British Election Projections 4.17.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 288 (+80)
Labour 265 (-81)
Liberal Democrats 66 (-1)
Nationalists/Others 31 (+2)

Result: Hung Parliament/Conservative Minority of 23 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Post Debate Polls Only

Labour 271 (-75)
Conservatives 246 (+38)
Liberal Democrats 101 (+34)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+1)

Result:Hung Parliament/Labour Minority of 25 (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition)

British Election Projections 4.15.10

(326 needed for a majority government)

Conservatives 296 (+88)
Labour 268 (-78)
Liberal Democrats 53 (-14)
Nationalists/Other 33 (+4)

Result: Conservative Minority Government of 28 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition)

British Election Projections 4.7.10

326 seats needed for a majority

Conservatives 314 (+106)
Labour 254 (-92)
Liberal Democrats 49 (-18)
Nationalists/Others 33 (+4)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservative Minority Government of 60 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition Government)

Really more of a late night test run than anything, but wanted to get the first one of these out of the way as I'm going to start putting out regular predictions for the British General Election on May 6th, in an attempt to fill the political downtime gap while waiting for the American midterm elections start to move into full gear.

Senate Rankings 3.10.10

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4.5 GOP
Pundit Over/Under: +4 GOP (Cook: +3.5 GOP, CQ: +4 GOP, Roll Call: +4 GOP, Sabato: +4.5 GOP)
Narrow Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of seven to nine seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Changes Since Last Update: Status Quo (+1 DEM, +1 GOP)

From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Indiana
From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Pennsylvania

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Delaware (Special), Indiana

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Nevada, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Pennsylvania, Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana

House Rankings 2.3.10

House: +14 GOP

Current House: 256-178 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+40 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+14 GOP)

Narrow Range: 230-205 DEM (+27 GOP) to 256-179 DEM (+1 GOP)

Wide Range: 228-207 GOP (+50 GOP) to 264-171 DEM (+7 DEM)

Spread: +14 GOP

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of twenty four to thirty seats

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of two seats to a Republican gain of four seats

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (4)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, Arkansas 2nd, Arkansas 1st

Tilts Republican/Tossup (13)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Maryland 1st, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 5th, Mississippi 1st, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Washington 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Pennsylvania 7th, Michigan 7th, New Hampshire 1st, Virginia 2nd, New Hampshire 2nd, Florida 24th, Nevada 3rd, Illinois 14th, New York 29th, New York 19th, New York 24th, New York 23rd

Leans Democratic (23)

Indiana 9th, Missouri 4th, Ohio 18th, South Carolina 5th, Arizona 5th, North Carolina 8th, Wisconsin 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Hawai'i 1st, New York 1st, Texas 17th, North Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 10th, Arizona 8th, New York 13th, Ohio 16th, New York 20th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 11th, Georgia 8th, South Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 17th, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Iowa 3rd, California 47th, West Virginia 1st, Virginia 9th, Colorado 3rd, Pennsylvania 8th, Tennessee 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (2)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware At-Large

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (8)

Pennsylvania 6th, Washington 8th, California 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 6th, Ohio 12th, California 44th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (3)

Minnesota 3rd, California 45th, Ohio 2nd

Senate Rankings 2.2.10

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4 GOP
Narrow Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of six to eight seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Delaware

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Colorado, Pennsylvania

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana