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Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 60-40 DEM (+11 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 61-39 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+5 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+5 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-35-6 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 62-38 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 4 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 5 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 7 GOP 5
Switches from Last Update:
Pennsylvania: GOP HOLD to DEM HOLD
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of six to eight seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of four to six seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (3)
4. Florida (5)
5. Kentucky (6)
6. Connecticut (7)
7. North Carolina (8)
8. Pennsylvania (4)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: None
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Senate Rankings 4.25.09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky
Leans Republican
North Carolina, Louisiana
Democratic Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Connecticut
Leans Democratic
Illinois, Colorado, Nevada
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, Arkansas
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)
Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
New York 20th Live Blog
New York 20th
Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%
100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)
Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)
10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)
Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%
100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)
Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)
10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Senate Rankings 2/26/09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
Republican Senate Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Democratic Senate Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin, North Dakota
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada
House Rankings 2/26/09
House: +2 GOP
Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%
DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats
GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats
Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats
House Vacancies
Democratic (3)
California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP
Republican (0)
Potential New Seats
District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP
Republican Defenses
Likely Democratic (1)
Louisiana 2nd
Leans Republican (5)
Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)
Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)
Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th
Currently Safe (156)
Democratic Defenses
Leans Republican (1)
New York 20th (Special)
Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)
Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd
Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)
Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st
Leans Democratic (17)
New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)
New York 19th
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)
Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th
Currently Safe (214)
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Senate Rankings 2.5.09
Senate: +1 DEM
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce
Republican Defenses
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
New Hampshire
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
North Carolina, Iowa
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Governor Rankings 1.29.09
Governorships: +1 GOP
Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Governorships: 27-23 DEM (+1 GOP)
Narrow Range: 26-24 GOP (+4 GOP) to 28-22 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 33-17 GOP (+11 GOP) to 38-12 DEM (+10 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 24-22-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 26-24 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 3 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 3 GOP 1
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): GOP 4 DEM 3
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): GOP 11 DEM 10
2006/2008 Prediction Accuracy: 47/47 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%
Open Seats
Democratic
Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Term-Limited)
Maine-Gov. John Baldacci (Term-Limited)
Michigan-Gov. Jennifer Granholm (Term-Limited)
New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (Term-Limited)
Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (Term-Limited)
Oregon-Gov. Ted Kulongoski (Term-Limited)
Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (Term-Limited)
Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (Term-Limited)
Virginia-Gov. Tim Kaine (Term-Limited)
Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (Term-Limited)
Republican
Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (Term-Limited)
California-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Term-Limited)
Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (Term-Limited)
Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (Term-Limited)
Rhode Island-Gov. Don Carcieri (Term-Limited)
South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (Term-Limited)
South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (Term-Limited)
Republican Defenses
Leans Democratic
Hawaii, Rhode Island, California
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Nevada
Leans Republican
Arizona, Minnesota, Vermont, South Dakota, Georgia, Connecticut
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Alabama
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
Florida
Democratic Defenses
Leans Republican
Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Virginia (2009)
Tilts Democratic/Tossup
Michigan, Pennsylvania
Leans Democratic
New Jersey (2009), Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Ohio, Maine, Oregon
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Colorado, Iowa
Top Twenty Turnover Targets
1. Wyoming
2. Hawaii
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. Rhode Island
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Nevada
9. Virginia
10. Michigan
11. Pennsylvania
12. Arizona
13. Minnesota
14. Vermont
15. New Jersey
16. South Dakota
17. Wisconsin
18. New Mexico
19. Georgia
20. Connecticut
Senate Rankings 1.29.09
Senate: Status Quo
Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-38-3 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 60-40 DEM or 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 0
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 6 GOP 3
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 30%
* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated
Retirements/Open Seats
Democratic
Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)
Republican
Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)
Republican Defenses
Tilts Republican/Tossup
Ohio, Florida, Missouri
Leans Republican
Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana
Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kansas
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota
Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Wisconsin
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Illinois
Top 10 Turnover Targets
1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Louisiana
8. Nevada
9. North Dakota
10. Kansas
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