Presidential Preliminary Projection (5/11/08)

Obama 298
McCain 240

Changes from last week

McCain to Obama: Ohio, Nevada
Obama to McCain: None

Swing in raw popular vote from last week: Obama +3.1
Swing in projected popular vote from last week: Obama +3.4

Projections based upon the current margin in the projected popular vote (51.8-48.2 Obama) combined with pundit predictions and state by state polling. Projection is intended as a possibility of the election's outcome if held today and not a final prediction.

State by State Projections (Colored Bold indicates turnover from 2004)

Safe Democratic (31)

D.C. Vermont, Illinois, Rhode Island

Solid Democratic (134)

Hawai'i, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, California

Likely Democratic (35)

Maine, Washington, Delaware, Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Democratic (60)

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico

Tilts Democratic (38)

Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Republican (27)

Florida

Leans Republican (24)

Missouri, Virginia

Likely Republican (119)

South Carolina, North Carolina, Texas, Indiana, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arizona, Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, South Dakota

Solid Republican (51)

Mississippi, Tennessee, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Kentucky

Safe Republican (19)

Oklahoma, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah

Daily Polling Update 5/11/08

Sorry for the lack of an update yesterday, however I have included Saturday's numbers below for posterity. As always the highest and lowest polling results for each candidate are thrown out in an attempt to reduce the influence of obvious outliers.

Polling Data from 4/28-5/10

Obama 47 (47.0) (43-51)
McCain 44 (43.7) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 7, McCain 2
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 Split of undecided voters)

Obama 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)

Daily Tracking Poll Average (Gallup and Rasmussen)

Obama 47
McCain 45

Polling Data from 4/28-5/09 (Saturday's Old Update)

Obama 47 (46.7) (43-51)
McCain 44 (43.7) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 7, McCain 2
Largests Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 52 (51.7)
McCain 48 (48.3)

Daily Polling Update 5/9/08

Polling Data from 4/28-5/8

Update:5/10/08 3:22 AM: As Real Clear Politics has fixed an error in their data reporting (a poll which first reported a 47-43 McCain advantage actually showed a 47-43 lead for Obama). As they have fixed their averages, so have I fixed mine.

As always the highest and lowest polling results for each candidate are thrown out in an attempt to reduce the influence of obvious outliers. (For example the CBS poll below showing an eleven point lead for Obama when every other poll shows a one to six point race).

Obama 47 (46.9) (43-51)
McCain 44 (43.6 (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 7, McCain 2
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (Fox)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)

Daily Polling Update 5/8/08

Polls from 4/28-5/07

National Polling Data

Obama 47 (46.8) (43-51)
McCain 44 (44.4) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 5, McCain 2
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 51 (51.3)
McCain 49 (48.7)

West Virginia Democratic Primary

Clinton 60 (59.5)
Obama 25

Poll Leads: Clinton 2
Largest Lead: Clinton +40 (TSG)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 70
Obama 30

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 20
Obama 8

Kentucky Democratic Primary

Clinton 59
Obama 30 (29.5)

Poll Leads: Clinton 2
Largest Lead: Clinton +34 (SurveyUSA)

Projected Popular Vote (Assumed 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Clinton 67
Obama 33

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 34
Obama 17

Oregon Democratic Primary

Obama 51 (50.5)
Clinton 42 (41.5)

Poll Leads: Obama 2
Largest Lead: Obama +12 (Rasmussen)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 55
Clinton 45

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Obama 29
Clinton 23

Daily National Polling Update 5/6/08

Polls from 4/28-5/06

Obama v. McCain

Obama  47 (46.6) (43-51)

McCain 44 (44.4) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 5, McCain 2

Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (Fox)

Shift from 5/5/08: +.6 Obama

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming a 50/50 split in undecided voters)

Obama  51 (51.2)

McCain 49 (48.8)

Indiana/North Carolina Results/Exits

Indiana Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Clinton 644,590 (50.6%)
Obama 630,395 (49.4%)

Indiana Exit Polls

Clinton 52%
Obama 48%

Indiana Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 37 (37)
Obama 35 (33)

North Carolina Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Obama 874,641 (56%)
Clinton 651,696 (42%)

North Carolina Exit Polls

Obama 55%
Clinton 41%

North Carolina Projected Delegate Count

Obama 66 (62)
Clinton 49 (46)

11:47 PM: Lake county has finally started reporting. With 26% in the margin is 75-25 Obama, if that gap holds up Obama will easily overturn Hillary's lead.
10:07 PM: It's fairly obvious that Obama has won the night and Hillary's momentum has been stunted, the only real question is whether or not it's via knockout or simply a unanimous decision by the metaphorical judges. In addition, Lake County (home to Gary and considered a major Obama stronghold as well as one of two counties still outstanding) will not start reporting until 11 PM. The question is if Lake will be able to overwhelm both her lead of around 42,000. Regardless the old Obama seemed to have returned during his victory speech and if tonight does de facto resolve the nomination, Hillary can blame her wonderful pandering over the gas tax holiday, which seems to have revived him while pushing Rev. Wright onto the back burner. BTW, since when did Harold Ford Jr. become an Obama supporter, or did I just falsely assume he was a Hillary supporter?
9:15 PM: MSNBC has moved Indiana from too early to call to too close to call as Obama is within 50,000 votes (53-47) within the Chicago Suburbs yet to report a single vote. Although since Obama has just conceeded Indiana during his victory speech in Raleigh it's possible he's looking at different numbers than I am.
8:04 PM: Still no call regarding Indiana presumably because the Chicago suburbs still haven't reported, although overcoming a 14 point lead won't be particularly easy for Obama regardless.
7:33 PM: MSNBC has called the North Carolina Democratic Primary for Barack Obama, doing so as soon as the polls closed. The first good sign in a long time for the Obama campaign. CNN has also called the race for Obama.
7:04 PM: Exiting Polling from Indiana show a four point lead for Hillary, assuming the polls are overstating Obama's support yet again, it's probably closer to a ten point lead, big enough that she'll get to claim a major victory but probably no more than a 40-32 or 41-31 delegate split.
6:39 PM: And due to Indiana being split between two time zones we actually have early numbers from the Hooiser State before exit polling numbers. Right now the vote tally looks good for Hillary but it's still extremely early with no numbers from NW Indiana or Indianapolis yet.

A couple of last minutes polls in Indiana and North Carolina have moved the numbers just enough to justify another post. My final prediction heading into tonight is that Clinton will win Indiana by six and Obama will win North Carolina by eight, a split decision which will continue the death march to Denver and oblivion. However seeing as my predictions have absolutely stunk so far this primary season (mainly because I've never been able to work out a good formula unlike with the various legislative races) I wouldn't be surprised if either one of the candidates manages to finally land the knock out blow. Also some new head to head numbers between the Democrats and McCain finally put both Dems in the lead albeit narrowly, so I've included that data as well. I should have a new projection map for Obama v. McCain up next Sunday night (as is my plan until September) with one for Clinton v. McCain perhaps forthcoming if I ever become convinced that there is still a chance she could win the nomination (which is not currently the case).

Indiana Democratic Primary

Clinton 49(49.3) (43-51)
Obama 44 (44.0) (42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (Survey USA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 53 (52.8)
Obama 47 (47.2)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 50 (50.0) (47-53)
Clinton 42 (42.4) (37-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +14 (Zogby)
Smallest Lead: Obama +4 (Insider Advantage)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (54.1)
Clinton 46 (45.9)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Obama 62
Clinton 53

National Polling

Obama v. McCain

Obama 46 (46.4) (43-51)
McCain 45 (44.8) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 3, McCain 3, Tied 1
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 51 (50.9)
McCain 49 (49.1)

Clinton v. McCain

Clinton 47 (47.0) (45-53)
McCain 44 (43.6) (41-49)

Poll Leads: Clinton 6, McCain 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (USA Today/Gallup)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)

Indiana/North Carolina Polling Update

While my party continues down the road to its eventual seppuku, here's the polling data from North Carolina and Indiana which indicate that this crap is going to drag out for another month. For the curious, the polling data is from Real Clear Politics, a conservative leaning site which posts new data slightly more frequently than its liberal equivalent Pollster.com. (Although there is still debate as to whether Pollster's graphing or RCP's simple averaging is more accurate). However, the one major difference between RCP and my numbers is that I throw out the highest and lowest polling "scores" for each candidate in an attempt to fully neutralize any outliers. I should be back tomorrow with more live blogging and perhaps angry vulgarity.

Indiana Democratic Primary Polling

Clinton 49(49.3)(42-54)
Obama 44(43.7)(42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (SurveyUSA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 53 (53.0)
Obama 47 (47.0)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 49 (49.4)(48-53)
Clinton 43(42.8)(40-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +10 (Public Policy Polling)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (53.6)
Clinton 46 (46.4)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Obama 62
Clinton 53

Presidential Preliminary Projection (Obama v. McCain)

Obama 273-McCain 265

National Popular Vote

Obama 46 (45.5) (42-51)
McCain 45 (45.3) (40-47)

Poll Leads: Obama 3, McCain 3
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +5 (Gallup)

State By State Projections (Bold indicates turnover)

Safe Democratic (6)

D.C., Vermont

Solid Democratic (89)

Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Hawai'i, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut

Likely Democratic (88)

California, Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Democratic (72)

Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa

Tilts Democratic (18)

New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire

Tilts Republican (53)

Ohio, Nevada, Florida

Leans Republican (24)

Virginia, Missouri

Likely Republican (97)

Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Indiana

Solid Republican (70)

Arizona, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, South Dakota, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Nebraska

Safe Republican (19)

Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Projection Based Purely Upon State Polls

Obama 275
McCain 263

Switches From Formula Based Projection

McCain to Obama: Indiana
Obama to McCain: New Mexico, New Hampshire

All Data Accurate as of 5/5/08

Louisiana Special Elections

Louisiana 6th 99% Reporting (DEM GAIN)

Cazayoux (D) 49,312 (49.2%)
Jenkins (R) 46,282 (46.2%)
Casey (I) 3,705 (3.7%)


Louisiana 1st 99% Reporting (GOP HOLD)

Scalise (R) 33,750 (75.2%)
Reed (D) 10,103 (22.5%)

10:50 PM: Well that was weird. The Louisiana SOS site didn't update at all for over thirty minutes and after finally doing so, showed that will 99% reporting Cazayoux has won the Louisiana 6th Special Election. While my 3% prediction ended up being more or less on the money, it was a rather odd night to be sure with a Jenkins lead throughout the night suddenly being overtaken at seemingly the last minute. Hell, I'm half-tempted not to call the race just in case it's a glitch. Cazayoux's win means that the new house breakdown is 234-199 DEM (with 1 DEM and 1 GOP open seats). I can't say that I'm not surprised that he pulled this race off, but I can't say that I'm not excited either. Now we'll see if Cazayoux can hold the seat in the general, as while I'll tentatively rate the 6th as Leans Democratic, I can see it moving one way or the other before election. Still, that's something the Democrats can worry about in a few months, right now it's time to celebrate a second special election victory with another opportunity looming ten days down the road.
10:19 PM: And as soon as I finished the last post, the latest update shows that Cazayoux has closed within 1500 votes. Also, formal declaration be dammed, I'm calling the Louisiana 1st for Scalise myself.
10:16 PM: Cazayoux appears to be rallying slightly but it might be a case of too little, too late, as the vast majority of outstanding votes are from Baton Rouge proper which is Jenkins hometown and was carried by President Bush in 2004. Scalise has obviously won in the 1st, I'm just waiting for a formal call to mark it red.
10:05 PM: Well, it's really starting to look like I (and Survey USA) were mistaken about the race in Louisiana 6th as while most of the reporting areas so far are from solidly GOP areas, the lead is starting to look a tad on the insurmountable side. Scalise has a massive, if unsurprisingly lead in the Louisiana 1st.
9:04 PM: The polls in Louisiana closed a few minutes ago. Numbers should start coming in shortly.
7:08 PM: While I'm not particularly convinced that anyone else even reads this blog, I figured I might as well live blog the results of today's two special House elections in Louisiana. While the 1st district is almost certain to remain in Republican hands barring a major upset, the 6th has proven surprisingly competitive and the Democrats stand a slightly better than even chance of winning a seat in deep red territory. Cazayoux is considered the slight favorite as seen in a Survey USA poll released earlier this week showing him with a nine point lead over Jenkins. While Cazayoux is out of the mainstream of the national Democratic Party, running as a social conservative with populist tendencies, even a Democrat who votes with his party only 35% of the time would be a major improvement over Jenkins. Who's probably best known for narrowly losing the 1996 Senate Race to Mary Landrieu and then spending the next six months claiming she cheated him out of his rightful position. Furthermore losing a second special election in a three month time span would damage Republican chance of retaking the house in November, as a Cazayoux victory would increase the margin needed for Speaker Boehner to eighteen seats. While special elections are almost always close regardless of the nature of the district (although there are obvious exceptions including tonight's other special election) a victory for the Democrats here combined with Foster's previous victory and the possibility of Travis Childers winning in an even more conservative district against a first tier candidate (unlike Jenkins or Oberweiss) would seem a bad sign for the GOP. Furthermore, tonight's special election provides a first glimpse into whether or not prohibitive Democratic front-runner Barack Obama will serve as a boost or an anchor for down ticket Democratic candidates in November. With both the NRCC and third party groups (foremost Freedom Watch) attacking Cazayoux for his ties to Obama while the Illinois Senator's Presidential Campaign has been raising funds for the Louisiana Democrat. Although Cazayoux has yet to state a preference in the Democratic Presidential Primary should he become a Superdelegate after tonight, and has made noise about voting against Pelosi for Speaker should he win in a full term. The district's conservative lean has made me wary of predicting a turnover in the past, but both my formula and my gut now believe that Cazayoux's mix of conservative and populist views are enough to overtake the perpetual candidate Jenkins and carry the seat for the Democrats.

Louisiana 1st

Incumbent: Vacant (Bobby Jindal-Elected Governor of Louisiana)
Candidates: St. Rep. Steve Scalise (R) vs. Glida Reed (D)
2006 Result: Jindal* (R) 88.1% Gereighty (D) 7.4%
District PVI: R+18
Polling: None Recent
Rating: Safe Republican
% Prediction: Scalise by 25+%

Louisiana 6th

Incumbent: Vacant (Richard Baker-Resigned)
Candidates: St. Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) vs. Woody Jenkins (R)
2006 Result: Baker* (R) 82.8% Fontanesi (L) 17.2%
District PVI: R+7
Polling: Cazayoux 50% Jenkins 41% (Survey USA 4/29/08)
Rating: Tilts Democratic
% Prediction: Cazayoux by 2-3%