Daily Polling Update 5/9/08

Polling Data from 4/28-5/8

Update:5/10/08 3:22 AM: As Real Clear Politics has fixed an error in their data reporting (a poll which first reported a 47-43 McCain advantage actually showed a 47-43 lead for Obama). As they have fixed their averages, so have I fixed mine.

As always the highest and lowest polling results for each candidate are thrown out in an attempt to reduce the influence of obvious outliers. (For example the CBS poll below showing an eleven point lead for Obama when every other poll shows a one to six point race).

Obama 47 (46.9) (43-51)
McCain 44 (43.6 (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 7, McCain 2
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (Fox)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming a 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)

Daily Polling Update 5/8/08

Polls from 4/28-5/07

National Polling Data

Obama 47 (46.8) (43-51)
McCain 44 (44.4) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 5, McCain 2
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 51 (51.3)
McCain 49 (48.7)

West Virginia Democratic Primary

Clinton 60 (59.5)
Obama 25

Poll Leads: Clinton 2
Largest Lead: Clinton +40 (TSG)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 70
Obama 30

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 20
Obama 8

Kentucky Democratic Primary

Clinton 59
Obama 30 (29.5)

Poll Leads: Clinton 2
Largest Lead: Clinton +34 (SurveyUSA)

Projected Popular Vote (Assumed 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Clinton 67
Obama 33

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Clinton 34
Obama 17

Oregon Democratic Primary

Obama 51 (50.5)
Clinton 42 (41.5)

Poll Leads: Obama 2
Largest Lead: Obama +12 (Rasmussen)

Projected Popular Vote (Assuming 50/50 split of undecided voters)

Obama 55
Clinton 45

Projected Delegate Breakdown

Obama 29
Clinton 23

Daily National Polling Update 5/6/08

Polls from 4/28-5/06

Obama v. McCain

Obama  47 (46.6) (43-51)

McCain 44 (44.4) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 5, McCain 2

Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (Fox)

Shift from 5/5/08: +.6 Obama

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming a 50/50 split in undecided voters)

Obama  51 (51.2)

McCain 49 (48.8)

Indiana/North Carolina Results/Exits

Indiana Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Clinton 644,590 (50.6%)
Obama 630,395 (49.4%)

Indiana Exit Polls

Clinton 52%
Obama 48%

Indiana Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 37 (37)
Obama 35 (33)

North Carolina Democratic Primary 99% Reporting

Obama 874,641 (56%)
Clinton 651,696 (42%)

North Carolina Exit Polls

Obama 55%
Clinton 41%

North Carolina Projected Delegate Count

Obama 66 (62)
Clinton 49 (46)

11:47 PM: Lake county has finally started reporting. With 26% in the margin is 75-25 Obama, if that gap holds up Obama will easily overturn Hillary's lead.
10:07 PM: It's fairly obvious that Obama has won the night and Hillary's momentum has been stunted, the only real question is whether or not it's via knockout or simply a unanimous decision by the metaphorical judges. In addition, Lake County (home to Gary and considered a major Obama stronghold as well as one of two counties still outstanding) will not start reporting until 11 PM. The question is if Lake will be able to overwhelm both her lead of around 42,000. Regardless the old Obama seemed to have returned during his victory speech and if tonight does de facto resolve the nomination, Hillary can blame her wonderful pandering over the gas tax holiday, which seems to have revived him while pushing Rev. Wright onto the back burner. BTW, since when did Harold Ford Jr. become an Obama supporter, or did I just falsely assume he was a Hillary supporter?
9:15 PM: MSNBC has moved Indiana from too early to call to too close to call as Obama is within 50,000 votes (53-47) within the Chicago Suburbs yet to report a single vote. Although since Obama has just conceeded Indiana during his victory speech in Raleigh it's possible he's looking at different numbers than I am.
8:04 PM: Still no call regarding Indiana presumably because the Chicago suburbs still haven't reported, although overcoming a 14 point lead won't be particularly easy for Obama regardless.
7:33 PM: MSNBC has called the North Carolina Democratic Primary for Barack Obama, doing so as soon as the polls closed. The first good sign in a long time for the Obama campaign. CNN has also called the race for Obama.
7:04 PM: Exiting Polling from Indiana show a four point lead for Hillary, assuming the polls are overstating Obama's support yet again, it's probably closer to a ten point lead, big enough that she'll get to claim a major victory but probably no more than a 40-32 or 41-31 delegate split.
6:39 PM: And due to Indiana being split between two time zones we actually have early numbers from the Hooiser State before exit polling numbers. Right now the vote tally looks good for Hillary but it's still extremely early with no numbers from NW Indiana or Indianapolis yet.

A couple of last minutes polls in Indiana and North Carolina have moved the numbers just enough to justify another post. My final prediction heading into tonight is that Clinton will win Indiana by six and Obama will win North Carolina by eight, a split decision which will continue the death march to Denver and oblivion. However seeing as my predictions have absolutely stunk so far this primary season (mainly because I've never been able to work out a good formula unlike with the various legislative races) I wouldn't be surprised if either one of the candidates manages to finally land the knock out blow. Also some new head to head numbers between the Democrats and McCain finally put both Dems in the lead albeit narrowly, so I've included that data as well. I should have a new projection map for Obama v. McCain up next Sunday night (as is my plan until September) with one for Clinton v. McCain perhaps forthcoming if I ever become convinced that there is still a chance she could win the nomination (which is not currently the case).

Indiana Democratic Primary

Clinton 49(49.3) (43-51)
Obama 44 (44.0) (42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (Survey USA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 53 (52.8)
Obama 47 (47.2)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 50 (50.0) (47-53)
Clinton 42 (42.4) (37-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +14 (Zogby)
Smallest Lead: Obama +4 (Insider Advantage)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (54.1)
Clinton 46 (45.9)

Projected Delegate Allocation

Obama 62
Clinton 53

National Polling

Obama v. McCain

Obama 46 (46.4) (43-51)
McCain 45 (44.8) (40-48)

Poll Leads: Obama 3, McCain 3, Tied 1
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (FOX)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 51 (50.9)
McCain 49 (49.1)

Clinton v. McCain

Clinton 47 (47.0) (45-53)
McCain 44 (43.6) (41-49)

Poll Leads: Clinton 6, McCain 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (CBS/NYT), McCain +3 (USA Today/Gallup)

Projected Popular Vote (With 50/50 Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 52 (51.8)
McCain 48 (48.2)

Indiana/North Carolina Polling Update

While my party continues down the road to its eventual seppuku, here's the polling data from North Carolina and Indiana which indicate that this crap is going to drag out for another month. For the curious, the polling data is from Real Clear Politics, a conservative leaning site which posts new data slightly more frequently than its liberal equivalent Pollster.com. (Although there is still debate as to whether Pollster's graphing or RCP's simple averaging is more accurate). However, the one major difference between RCP and my numbers is that I throw out the highest and lowest polling "scores" for each candidate in an attempt to fully neutralize any outliers. I should be back tomorrow with more live blogging and perhaps angry vulgarity.

Indiana Democratic Primary Polling

Clinton 49(49.3)(42-54)
Obama 44(43.7)(42-46)

Poll Leads: Clinton 4, Obama 1
Largest Leads: Clinton +12 (SurveyUSA), Obama +2 (Zogby)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)

Clinton 53 (53.0)
Obama 47 (47.0)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Clinton 38
Obama 34

North Carolina Democratic Primary

Obama 49 (49.4)(48-53)
Clinton 43(42.8)(40-45)

Poll Leads: Obama 7
Largest Lead: Obama +10 (Public Policy Polling)

Projected Popular Vote (Presuming Even Split of Undecided Voters)

Obama 54 (53.6)
Clinton 46 (46.4)

Rough Delegate Estimate

Obama 62
Clinton 53

Presidential Preliminary Projection (Obama v. McCain)

Obama 273-McCain 265

National Popular Vote

Obama 46 (45.5) (42-51)
McCain 45 (45.3) (40-47)

Poll Leads: Obama 3, McCain 3
Largest Leads: Obama +11 (CBS/NYT), McCain +5 (Gallup)

State By State Projections (Bold indicates turnover)

Safe Democratic (6)

D.C., Vermont

Solid Democratic (89)

Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Hawai'i, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut

Likely Democratic (88)

California, Maine, Washington, New Jersey, Delaware

Leans Democratic (72)

Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa

Tilts Democratic (18)

New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire

Tilts Republican (53)

Ohio, Nevada, Florida

Leans Republican (24)

Virginia, Missouri

Likely Republican (97)

Tennessee, Texas, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Louisiana, Indiana

Solid Republican (70)

Arizona, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, South Dakota, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Nebraska

Safe Republican (19)

Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Projection Based Purely Upon State Polls

Obama 275
McCain 263

Switches From Formula Based Projection

McCain to Obama: Indiana
Obama to McCain: New Mexico, New Hampshire

All Data Accurate as of 5/5/08

Louisiana Special Elections

Louisiana 6th 99% Reporting (DEM GAIN)

Cazayoux (D) 49,312 (49.2%)
Jenkins (R) 46,282 (46.2%)
Casey (I) 3,705 (3.7%)


Louisiana 1st 99% Reporting (GOP HOLD)

Scalise (R) 33,750 (75.2%)
Reed (D) 10,103 (22.5%)

10:50 PM: Well that was weird. The Louisiana SOS site didn't update at all for over thirty minutes and after finally doing so, showed that will 99% reporting Cazayoux has won the Louisiana 6th Special Election. While my 3% prediction ended up being more or less on the money, it was a rather odd night to be sure with a Jenkins lead throughout the night suddenly being overtaken at seemingly the last minute. Hell, I'm half-tempted not to call the race just in case it's a glitch. Cazayoux's win means that the new house breakdown is 234-199 DEM (with 1 DEM and 1 GOP open seats). I can't say that I'm not surprised that he pulled this race off, but I can't say that I'm not excited either. Now we'll see if Cazayoux can hold the seat in the general, as while I'll tentatively rate the 6th as Leans Democratic, I can see it moving one way or the other before election. Still, that's something the Democrats can worry about in a few months, right now it's time to celebrate a second special election victory with another opportunity looming ten days down the road.
10:19 PM: And as soon as I finished the last post, the latest update shows that Cazayoux has closed within 1500 votes. Also, formal declaration be dammed, I'm calling the Louisiana 1st for Scalise myself.
10:16 PM: Cazayoux appears to be rallying slightly but it might be a case of too little, too late, as the vast majority of outstanding votes are from Baton Rouge proper which is Jenkins hometown and was carried by President Bush in 2004. Scalise has obviously won in the 1st, I'm just waiting for a formal call to mark it red.
10:05 PM: Well, it's really starting to look like I (and Survey USA) were mistaken about the race in Louisiana 6th as while most of the reporting areas so far are from solidly GOP areas, the lead is starting to look a tad on the insurmountable side. Scalise has a massive, if unsurprisingly lead in the Louisiana 1st.
9:04 PM: The polls in Louisiana closed a few minutes ago. Numbers should start coming in shortly.
7:08 PM: While I'm not particularly convinced that anyone else even reads this blog, I figured I might as well live blog the results of today's two special House elections in Louisiana. While the 1st district is almost certain to remain in Republican hands barring a major upset, the 6th has proven surprisingly competitive and the Democrats stand a slightly better than even chance of winning a seat in deep red territory. Cazayoux is considered the slight favorite as seen in a Survey USA poll released earlier this week showing him with a nine point lead over Jenkins. While Cazayoux is out of the mainstream of the national Democratic Party, running as a social conservative with populist tendencies, even a Democrat who votes with his party only 35% of the time would be a major improvement over Jenkins. Who's probably best known for narrowly losing the 1996 Senate Race to Mary Landrieu and then spending the next six months claiming she cheated him out of his rightful position. Furthermore losing a second special election in a three month time span would damage Republican chance of retaking the house in November, as a Cazayoux victory would increase the margin needed for Speaker Boehner to eighteen seats. While special elections are almost always close regardless of the nature of the district (although there are obvious exceptions including tonight's other special election) a victory for the Democrats here combined with Foster's previous victory and the possibility of Travis Childers winning in an even more conservative district against a first tier candidate (unlike Jenkins or Oberweiss) would seem a bad sign for the GOP. Furthermore, tonight's special election provides a first glimpse into whether or not prohibitive Democratic front-runner Barack Obama will serve as a boost or an anchor for down ticket Democratic candidates in November. With both the NRCC and third party groups (foremost Freedom Watch) attacking Cazayoux for his ties to Obama while the Illinois Senator's Presidential Campaign has been raising funds for the Louisiana Democrat. Although Cazayoux has yet to state a preference in the Democratic Presidential Primary should he become a Superdelegate after tonight, and has made noise about voting against Pelosi for Speaker should he win in a full term. The district's conservative lean has made me wary of predicting a turnover in the past, but both my formula and my gut now believe that Cazayoux's mix of conservative and populist views are enough to overtake the perpetual candidate Jenkins and carry the seat for the Democrats.

Louisiana 1st

Incumbent: Vacant (Bobby Jindal-Elected Governor of Louisiana)
Candidates: St. Rep. Steve Scalise (R) vs. Glida Reed (D)
2006 Result: Jindal* (R) 88.1% Gereighty (D) 7.4%
District PVI: R+18
Polling: None Recent
Rating: Safe Republican
% Prediction: Scalise by 25+%

Louisiana 6th

Incumbent: Vacant (Richard Baker-Resigned)
Candidates: St. Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) vs. Woody Jenkins (R)
2006 Result: Baker* (R) 82.8% Fontanesi (L) 17.2%
District PVI: R+7
Polling: Cazayoux 50% Jenkins 41% (Survey USA 4/29/08)
Rating: Tilts Democratic
% Prediction: Cazayoux by 2-3%

U.S. House Big Board 4/23/08

U.S. House (+4 DEM)

Update: 4/23/08 5:25 PM: Arizona 1st moved from Tilts Republican to Tilts Democratic
Update: 5/1/08 2:50 PM: Louisiana 6th (Special) moved from Tilts Republican to Tilts Democratic

Update: 5/1/08 Added a new classification of Potentially Competitive
Update: 5/3/08 Louisiana 6th moved from Tilts Democratic Gain to Leans Democratic Defense, Current House has been updated to 234-199 DEM.
Update: 5/13/08 Mississippi 1st moved from Tilts Republican Defense to Leans Democratic Defense, Current House has been updated to 235-199 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof Majority: +54 DEM or +91 GOP
Projected House: 240-195 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +7 DEM (243-192 DEM) to S.Q. (236-199 DEM)
Medium Range: +17 DEM (253-182 DEM) to +14 GOP (222-213 DEM)
Wide Range: +22 DEM (258-177 DEM) to +19 GOP (218-217 GOP)
Pundit Spread: +4 DEM (Cook +5 DEM, Crawford +4 DEM, Sabato +4 DEM, Rothenberg +4 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%
Current Vacancies:

Democratic

Maryland 4th-Al Wynn Resigned (6/17/08-Safe DEM)

Breakdown

Republican Defenses (199)

Heavily Leans Democratic (1)

Illinois 11th

Leans Democratic (1)

New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (4)

Virginia 11th, New York 25th, Arizona 1st, New Mexico 1st

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (3)

Minnesota 3rd, Ohio 15th, Ohio 16th

Leans Republican (8)

New Jersey 7th, Washington 8th, New York 26th, North Carolina 8th, Illinois 10th, Connecticut 4th, Alaska At-Large, Nevada 3rd

Heavily Leans Republican (5)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Michigan 7th, Louisiana 4th, Colorado 4th

Likely Republican (6)

Ohio 2nd, Michigan 9th, California 4th, Missouri 6th, Alabama 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th

Potentially Competitive (27)

Safe Republican (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Leans Republican (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (13)

Oregon 5th, Kansas 2nd, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Illinois 14th, New Hampshire 1st, Arizona 5th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 4th, Louisiana 6th, Mississippi 1st

Heavily Leans Democratic (4)

Indiana 9th, New York 20th, Arizona 8th, New York 19th

Likely Democratic (6)

Texas 23rd, Minnesota 1st, Kentucky 3rd, Connecticut 2nd, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th

Potentially Competitive (18)

Safe Democratic (193)

Pennsylvania DEM Primary and Mississippi 1st Special Election

Pennsylvania Projected Delegate Count

Clinton 84
Obama 74

Pennsylvania Results (99% Reporting, 1:50 PM 4/23/08 )

Clinton 1,258,947 (54.7%)
Obama 1,043,044 (45.3%)

Pennsylvania Exit Polling (Second Wave Updated 9:47 PM)

Clinton 53%
Obama 47%

Mississippi 1st Special (100% Reporting, 1:59 AM)

Childers 33,138 (49.4%)
Davis 31,066 (46.3%)

10:43 PM
A late push by Childers has made things interesting but it looks like he'll end up a few hundred votes short of the runoff line, barring a major surprise in the remaining 1% of the vote yet to report.

10:14 PM
And it looks like we're going to a runoff in Mississippi on the 13th and it's not out of the realm of possibility that Childers will end up in the first position closing back to within 500 votes of Davis. Regardless Davis will start off as the favorite in three weeks, albeit as a narrower one that a few hours ago. And Hillary is about to start speaking so I might have to take a couple of vomit breaks at some point.

9:41PM
And after getting my hopes up earlier in the evening, Mississippi has appeared to return to form with Davis pulling ahead by seven points. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania has appeared to solidify at 53-47 which is big enough that Hillary can claim victory while still being small enough that it doesn't really do her a whole hell of a lot of good in the long run.

9:32 PM
Speaking of vote dumps, evidently the Republican one finally came through in Mississippi as Davis has pulled ahead for the first time tonight. Davis is currently over the 50% line by 71 votes

9:26 PM
It's becoming apparent that barring any major vote dumps in Republican areas, Childers will finish 1st in the Mississippi 1st. Whether or not he can stay over the 50% barrier and pull off the upset is a much dicier proposition. The margin in Pennsylvania stays around 6% or so as I've pretty much given up on MSNBC for the time being

9:00PM

Childers is over the 50% barrier in Mississippi which would be a fairly major upset for the Democrats if he pulls this one off, although I'm not certain is this is simply the Democratic parts of the district dumping their votes early or if these early returns really mean something.

8:53PM
And evidently the primary three weeks ago in Mississippi was just for shits and giggles as the defeated candidates evidently stay on the ballot anyways, providing the chance that neither major candidate will receive 50% of the vote, meaning that they'll be another runoff election in three weeks, and maybe this time the losers won't stay on the ballot. As for Pennsylvania Obama continues to narrow but this appears to be a result of Philadelphia starting to report en masse more than any sign of a real closing movement.

8:50PM
MSNBC has called the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary for Hillary Clinton, I suppose the margin is the real question now.

8:38 PM
As early numbers start to trickle in from Pennsylvania, MSNBC has switched their projection from "too close to call" to "too early to call" essentially setting Senator Clinton as more likely than to win the Pennsylvania primary. Very early numbers show her up 65-35 but with only around 2,500 votes reporting such a gap is almost certain to dissipate. The real question is still whether or not she'll win by enough to make any real dent in Obama's delegate lead or at least revive her lagging fund raising totals.

8:25 PM
25 minutes in and still no hard data from the Keystone State or Northern Mississippi

8:04 PM
First exit polls from CNN show Hillary up four in Pennsylvania (52-48), if the rule of seven holds in this race, it portends a low double digit victory for the junior senator from New York, which is probably good enough for this to drag on into North Carolina and Indiana if not Denver

8:00PM
According to MSNBC the Pennsylvania DEM primary is too close to call, exit polling data coming shortly

7:54PM
Well since I would like an excuse to avoid working on the thesis for the rest of the night, I have decided to launch one of my typical live bloging exercises, which usually managed to draw a whopping audience in the low single digits. Then again, I guess only my friends are reading this anyways and only to see if I say something stupid and/or get angry drunk sometime during the night. Anyway, this evening’s major focus will be upon Pennsylvania and the first primary contest on the Democratic side since March 11th. However, I’m also planning on at least spending a few moments covering the special election in the Mississippi 1st where the Democrats have at least an outside chance of stealing away a typically safe Republican seat, albeit with a candidate to the right of most Republicans including his opponent. Also, I just wanted to add a couple of points of warning for anyone supporting Senator Obama who is reading this blog.

1. Contrary to the norm throughout the rest of the country, in Pennsylvania the big cities typically report their returns first with rural areas not submitting their vote count until around 11PM. The best-known example being the 2004 US Senate Race when Joe Hoeffel jumped out to a fifteen point lead on Arlen Specter simply due to Philadelphia dumping all of their votes early in the evening, while eventually losing by eleven. Therefore, if Senator Obama jumps out to an early lead, it is not necessarily a sign that he is about to pull off an upset victory as much as friendly areas reporting first. And if Hillary has a lead by 9 PM, it’s probably a sign that we’re going to have a short night

2. While I’ll still be reporting exit poll results as soon as they are posted, the exits have consistently skewed in favor of Obama by 7 to 8 points throughout this primary season. Therefore, a three-point lead for Obama is probably, although again not necessarily, a four-point lead for Hillary.

Anyways on that note, I’ll leave everyone with the latest polling averages from Real Clear Politics (with the addition of throwing out the lowest and highest polling results for each candidate) as well as a mini capsule for the Mississippi 1st. As of right now, Hillary has a seven-point lead in the aggregate which sounds about right to me. I’ll be back with exit polling data a little after eight.

Clinton 50 48-51
Obama 43 41-44

Mississippi 1st

Incumbent: Vacant (Roger Wicker appointed to United States Senate)
Candidates: Greg Davis (R) vs. Travis Childers (D)
2006 Result: Wicker* (R) 66% Hurt (D) 34%
District PVI: R+10
Polling: No Recent Polling
Rating: Heavily Leans Republican
% Prediction: Davis by 8%