Senate Rankings 3.25.08

Managed to get the Senate Rankings done at least. I might go back tomorrow and add in commentary, but the numbers should make one thing clear, the Democrats are
heavily favored to successfully defend the upper chamber.

Senate (+4 DEM)

Current Senate: 51-49 DEM* (GOP +1 with GOP Presidential Victory, +2 with DEM Presidential Victory, needed for takeover)
Seats Needed for Filibuster-Proof Senate: +9 DEM or +11 GOP
Seats Needed for Veto-Proof Senate: +16 DEM, mathematically impossible for GOP
Projected Senate: 55-45 DEM (+4 DEM)
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (56-44 DEM) to +2 DEM (53-47 DEM)
Medium Range: +6 DEM (57-43 DEM) to +2 DEM (53-47 DEM)
Wide Range: +8 DEM (59-41 DEM) to S.Q. (51-49 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +3 DEM (Cook +3 DEM, Crawford +3-4 DEM, Sabato +3 DEM, Rothenberg +3 DEM)
Likelihood of Turnover: 2%
* While the partisan breakdown in the Senate is 49-49-2 since both Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) are members of the Democratic Caucus, I have counted them as such for our purposes.

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Virginia

Leans Democratic (2)

New Mexico, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (1)

Colorado

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up (1)

Minnesota

Leans Republican (1)

Oregon

Heavily Leans Republican (2)

Maine, Alaska

Potentially Competitive (4)

Mississippi (Special), North Carolina, Kentucky, Nebraska

Safe (6)

Tennessee, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Idaho

Live Boy/Dead Girl Territory (5)

South Carolina, Mississippi (Full), Kansas, Wyoming (Full), Wyoming (Special)



Democratic Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up (1)

Louisiana

Safe (4)

South Dakota, Montana, New Jersey, West Virginia

Live Boy/Dead Girl Territory (7)

Arkansas, Iowa, Michigan, Delaware, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts