Presidential Projection 1.16.12

43 weeks until Election Day (11.6.12)

Romney 275 (49.3) Obama 263 (49.7)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 247-235-56

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 303-235 to Romney 291-247

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 332-206 to Romney 317-221

State by State Projections

Safe Romney (+20%) (88)

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas
Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota

Solid Romney (14-20%) (71)

West Virginia, South Carolina, Montana, Texas, Georgia

Likely Romney (8-14%) (11)

Indiana

Leans Romney (3-8%) (65)

Arizona, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida

Tilts Romney (0-3%) (40)

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Obama (0-3%) (16)

New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa

Leans Obama (3-8%) (61)

Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Likely Obama (8-14%) (11)

Maine, Oregon

Solid Obama (14-20%) (99)

California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey

Safe Obama (+20%) (76)

D.C. Hawai’i, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware

Top Turnover Targets

1. Indiana-Romney 9.1%
2. North Carolina-Romney 5.4%
3. Florida-Romney 3.6%
4. Virginia-Romney 2.4%
5. Ohio-Romney 1.1%
6. Colorado-Romney 1.0%
7. Iowa-Obama 1.6%
8. Nevada-Obama 2.2%
9. New Hampshire-Obama 2.4%
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.4%
11. Wisconsin-Obama 4.1%
12. Missouri-Romney 5.0%
13. Minnesota-Obama 5.5%
14. New Mexico-Obama 5.7%
15. Michigan-Obama 6.2%

2012 Senate Projection 1.16.12

Senate: +4 GOP

Current Senate: 53-47 DEM

Projected Senate: 51-49 GOP

Range: 53-47 DEM (S.Q) to 55-45 GOP (+8 GOP)

Over/Under: +4 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Likely Republican

Nebraska, North Dakota

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Montana, Missouri, Virginia

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Mexico, Wisconsin, Florida

Leans Democratic

Ohio, Hawai'i, Michigan

Likely Democratic

Pennsylvania, Connecticut

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Massachusetts

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Nevada

Leans Republican

Arizona

Likely Republican

Indiana

Final Senate Projection

Senate +8 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM
Projected Senate: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP)
Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +10 GOP (51-49 GOP)
Over/Under: +7 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Solid Republican

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Wisconsin

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

West Virginia, Washington

Leans Democratic

California, Connecticut

Likely Democratic

Delaware

Republican Defenses

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire

Likely Republican

Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio

Final House Projection

House +60 GOP

Current House: 256-179 DEM
Projected House: 239-196 GOP (+60 GOP)
Range: 223-212 DEM (+33 GOP) to 251-184 GOP (+72 GOP)
Over/Under:+52.5 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Solid Republican (3)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, New York 29th

Likely Republican (4)

Indiana 8th, Arkansas 2nd, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd

Leans Republican (30)

Texas 17th, Colorado 4th, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Florida 2nd, New Hampshire 1st, Georiga 8th, Maryland 1st, Michigan 1st, Arkansas 1st, Arizona 1st, Washington 3rd, Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 5th, West Virginia 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Tennessee 4th, New Mexico 2nd, Mississippi 1st, Indiana 9th, South Dakota AL, Virginia 5th, Nevada 3rd, North Dakota AL, Ohio 16th, Ohio 18th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (26)

Arizona 5th, Colorado 3rd, Mississippi 4th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 2nd, New York 19th, Pennsylvania 7th, Wisconsin 7th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Illinois 14th, New York 23rd, Texas 23rd, Idaho 1st, Michigan 7th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 8th, Illinois 17th, New Hampshire 2nd, Missouri 4th, Florida 22nd, Georgia 2nd, Arizona 8th, New Jersey 3rd, New York 24th, North Carolina 8th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Ohio 6th, Virginia 9th, Massachusetts 10th, Oregon 5th, Kentucky 6th, New Mexico 1st, Virginia 11th, Washington 2nd, Indiana 2nd, California 20th, Pennsylvania 12th, Arizona 7th

Leans Democratic (23)

New York 1st, North Carolina 7th, Iowa 3rd, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 5th, Michigan 9th, Maine 1st, California 47th, Connecticut 4th, New York 13th, Colorado 7th, Iowa 1st, North Carolina 11th, Wisconsin 3rd, Iowa 2nd, Norh Carolina 2nd, Pennsylvania 4th, Minnesota 8th, Rhode Island 1st, Kentucky 3rd, New York 25th, Ohio 13th, Pennsylvania 17th

Likely Democratic (6)

Missouri 3rd, New York 22nd, Texas 27th, Maine 2nd, West Virginia 3rd, Massachusetts 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (3)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware AL, Illinois 10th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Hawai’i 1st

Leans Republican (5)

Florida 25th, Florida 12th, California 3rd, Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th

Senate Rankings 9.23.10

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)

Over/Under: +7 GOP

Potential Range: +3 GOP (56-44 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)

Changes from Last Week: +1 GOP

From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Wisconsin

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Pennsylvania

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Colorado, Wisconsin

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Nevada, Illinois, Washington, California

Leans Democratic

West Virginia (Special), Connecticut

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Delaware (Special)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Florida

Leans Republican

New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Louisiana

Senate Rankings 9.16.10

Senate: +5 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 54-46 DEM (+5 GOP)

Over/Under: +7.5 GOP

Potential Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Pennsylvania

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin, Washington, California

Leans Democratic

Connecticut, West Virginia (Special)

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Delaware (Special)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Florida

Leans Republican

New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Louisiana

Turnover Rankings

1. North Dakota (GOP GAIN)

2. Arkansas (GOP GAIN)

3. Indiana (GOP GAIN)

4. Pennsylvania (GOP GAIN)

5. Colorado (GOP GAIN)

6. Illinois

7. Florida

8. Nevada

9. Wisconsin

10. Washington

11. California

12. New Hampshire

13. Missouri

14. Kentucky

15. Ohio

British Election Final Projections (5.6.10)

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 290 (+82)
Labour 240 (-106)
Liberal Democrats 88 (+21)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 36 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 378 (Majority of 106)
Lab/Lib 328 (Majority of 6)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 35.7%
Labour 27.7%
Liberal Democrats 27.5%

British Election Projections 5.5.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 280 (+72)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 89 (+22)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 46 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 338 (Majority of 26)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 34.7%
Labour 27.9%
Liberal Democrats 27.6%

British Election Projections 5.4.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 277 (+69)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 92 (+25)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 49 seats short of a majority

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 341 (Majority of 32)

Popular Vote Averages

Conservatives 34.3%
Liberal Democrats 28.2%
Labour 27.6%

British Election Projections 4.29.10

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 274 (+66)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 95 (+28)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 52 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 344 (Majority of 38)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 34.1%
Liberal Democrats 29.1%
Labour 27.7%