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Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, S.Q or +1 GOP with McCain victory, contingent on Lieberman, needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)
Narrow Range: +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM) to +5 DEM (55-44-1 DEM)
Wide Range: S.Q. (50-49-1 DEM) to +10 DEM (60-39-1 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +5-6 DEM (Cook: +5-6 DEM, Sabato: +5-6 DEM, CQ: +5-6 DEM, Rothenberg: +5 DEM)
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 5 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 10 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: .2%
Switches from September 3rd: None
As has been the case since the first projection (at least here on Isto) back in May, the race for control of the Senate remains stable. The Democrats have been favored to pickup four Republican held seats since that first prediction, with Alaska moving into the Democratic fold after the indictment of Ted Stevens on corruption charges back in July. And, that has been it. On more that one occasion, I could have copied and pasted the previous prediction and no one would have been the wiser. This week is one of those times.
In the clichéd big picture, the Democrats are all but certain to maintain and increase their majority in the Senate as the Republican game plan seems to be the equivalent of praying that the board draws a royal flush and having the highest kicker. Here is what needs to happen for the Republicans to retake the Senate, assuming that Mark Warner does not somehow blow a massive lead in the Virginia senate race.
1. Republicans have to hold Democratic Gains to Virginia
2. John McCain has to win the Presidential Election
3. Joe Lieberman has to either defect to the GOP or be appointed to the cabinet which in turn would allow Republican Connecticut Governor Jody Rell to choose a Republican successor
4. John Kennedy has to defeat Mary Landrieu in Louisiana to offset Virginia
All four occurring would bring the Republicans into a 50-50 tie with Palin casting the tie-breaking vote. Of course, since only #2 and #3 (my gut feeling is that one way or the other Lieberman won't be caucusing with the Democrats come next January) look even mildly feasible, this task is downright Herculean for Republicans. Especially when one considers that NRSC chairman John Ensign has pulled advertising funding in Virginia and New Mexico. The Democrats will keep their chairman gavels barring a bizarre sequence of events. The real question is whether or not they will takeover enough seats to occasionally force Mitch McConnell to shut up or if the next two years might become the Congress of the perpetual filibuster. My gut feeling is that they will only get about halfway there. Still a Senate in the 54-46 to 56-44 range would have the largest Democratic majority since 1993, a good sign for a party that has only held the Senate for eleven and a half of the last twenty-eight years.
Republican Defenses
Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive
Virginia
Leans Democratic
New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska
Leans Republican
Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi (Special), North Carolina, Maine
Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive
Kentucky, Georgia
Democratic Defenses
Leans Democratic
Louisiana
Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets (Lighter Colors denotes projected turnover)
1. Virginia
2. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado
5. Alaska
6. Minnesota
7. Oregon
8. Louisiana
9. Mississippi (Special)
10. North Carolina
