Isto Pensitaris?

Presidential Projection 1.16.12

2012-01-16T21:49:00.003-05:00

43 weeks until Election Day (11.6.12)

Romney 275 (49.3) Obama 263 (49.7)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 247-235-56

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 303-235 to Romney 291-247

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 332-206 to Romney 317-221

State by State Projections

Safe Romney (+20%) (88)

Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Alaska, Nebraska, Kansas
Kentucky, Louisiana, North Dakota, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota

Solid Romney (14-20%) (71)

West Virginia, South Carolina, Montana, Texas, Georgia

Likely Romney (8-14%) (11)

Indiana

Leans Romney (3-8%) (65)

Arizona, North Carolina, Missouri, Florida

Tilts Romney (0-3%) (40)

Virginia, Ohio, Colorado

Tilts Obama (0-3%) (16)

New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa

Leans Obama (3-8%) (61)

Michigan, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Likely Obama (8-14%) (11)

Maine, Oregon

Solid Obama (14-20%) (99)

California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Washington, New Jersey

Safe Obama (+20%) (76)

D.C. Hawai’i, Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware

Top Turnover Targets

1. Indiana-Romney 9.1%
2. North Carolina-Romney 5.4%
3. Florida-Romney 3.6%
4. Virginia-Romney 2.4%
5. Ohio-Romney 1.1%
6. Colorado-Romney 1.0%
7. Iowa-Obama 1.6%
8. Nevada-Obama 2.2%
9. New Hampshire-Obama 2.4%
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.4%
11. Wisconsin-Obama 4.1%
12. Missouri-Romney 5.0%
13. Minnesota-Obama 5.5%
14. New Mexico-Obama 5.7%
15. Michigan-Obama 6.2%

2012 Senate Projection 1.16.12

2012-01-16T16:49:00.004-05:00

Senate: +4 GOP

Current Senate: 53-47 DEM

Projected Senate: 51-49 GOP

Range: 53-47 DEM (S.Q) to 55-45 GOP (+8 GOP)

Over/Under: +4 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Likely Republican

Nebraska, North Dakota

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Montana, Missouri, Virginia

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Mexico, Wisconsin, Florida

Leans Democratic

Ohio, Hawai'i, Michigan

Likely Democratic

Pennsylvania, Connecticut

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Massachusetts

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Nevada

Leans Republican

Arizona

Likely Republican

Indiana

Final Senate Projection

2010-11-01T22:41:00.001-04:00

Senate +8 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM
Projected Senate: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP)
Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +10 GOP (51-49 GOP)
Over/Under: +7 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Solid Republican

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Wisconsin

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

West Virginia, Washington

Leans Democratic

California, Connecticut

Likely Democratic

Delaware

Republican Defenses

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire

Likely Republican

Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio

Final House Projection

2010-11-01T22:37:00.001-04:00

House +60 GOP

Current House: 256-179 DEM
Projected House: 239-196 GOP (+60 GOP)
Range: 223-212 DEM (+33 GOP) to 251-184 GOP (+72 GOP)
Over/Under:+52.5 GOP

Democratic Defenses

Solid Republican (3)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, New York 29th

Likely Republican (4)

Indiana 8th, Arkansas 2nd, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd

Leans Republican (30)

Texas 17th, Colorado 4th, Florida 24th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Florida 8th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Florida 2nd, New Hampshire 1st, Georiga 8th, Maryland 1st, Michigan 1st, Arkansas 1st, Arizona 1st, Washington 3rd, Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 5th, West Virginia 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Tennessee 4th, New Mexico 2nd, Mississippi 1st, Indiana 9th, South Dakota AL, Virginia 5th, Nevada 3rd, North Dakota AL, Ohio 16th, Ohio 18th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (26)

Arizona 5th, Colorado 3rd, Mississippi 4th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 2nd, New York 19th, Pennsylvania 7th, Wisconsin 7th, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 11th, Illinois 14th, New York 23rd, Texas 23rd, Idaho 1st, Michigan 7th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 8th, Illinois 17th, New Hampshire 2nd, Missouri 4th, Florida 22nd, Georgia 2nd, Arizona 8th, New Jersey 3rd, New York 24th, North Carolina 8th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Ohio 6th, Virginia 9th, Massachusetts 10th, Oregon 5th, Kentucky 6th, New Mexico 1st, Virginia 11th, Washington 2nd, Indiana 2nd, California 20th, Pennsylvania 12th, Arizona 7th

Leans Democratic (23)

New York 1st, North Carolina 7th, Iowa 3rd, Minnesota 1st, Connecticut 5th, Michigan 9th, Maine 1st, California 47th, Connecticut 4th, New York 13th, Colorado 7th, Iowa 1st, North Carolina 11th, Wisconsin 3rd, Iowa 2nd, Norh Carolina 2nd, Pennsylvania 4th, Minnesota 8th, Rhode Island 1st, Kentucky 3rd, New York 25th, Ohio 13th, Pennsylvania 17th

Likely Democratic (6)

Missouri 3rd, New York 22nd, Texas 27th, Maine 2nd, West Virginia 3rd, Massachusetts 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (3)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware AL, Illinois 10th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Hawai’i 1st

Leans Republican (5)

Florida 25th, Florida 12th, California 3rd, Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th

Senate Rankings 9.23.10

2010-09-23T19:52:00.002-04:00

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)

Over/Under: +7 GOP

Potential Range: +3 GOP (56-44 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)

Changes from Last Week: +1 GOP

From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Wisconsin

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Pennsylvania

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Colorado, Wisconsin

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Nevada, Illinois, Washington, California

Leans Democratic

West Virginia (Special), Connecticut

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Delaware (Special)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Florida

Leans Republican

New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Louisiana

Senate Rankings 9.16.10

2010-09-15T17:46:00.003-04:00

Senate: +5 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected Senate: 54-46 DEM (+5 GOP)

Over/Under: +7.5 GOP

Potential Range: +4 GOP (55-45 DEM) to +11 GOP (52-48 GOP)

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Arkansas, Indiana

Leans Republican

Pennsylvania

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Toss-Up

Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin, Washington, California

Leans Democratic

Connecticut, West Virginia (Special)

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Delaware (Special)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Toss-Up

Florida

Leans Republican

New Hampshire, Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Louisiana

Turnover Rankings

1. North Dakota (GOP GAIN)

2. Arkansas (GOP GAIN)

3. Indiana (GOP GAIN)

4. Pennsylvania (GOP GAIN)

5. Colorado (GOP GAIN)

6. Illinois

7. Florida

8. Nevada

9. Wisconsin

10. Washington

11. California

12. New Hampshire

13. Missouri

14. Kentucky

15. Ohio

British Election Final Projections (5.6.10)

2010-05-05T18:43:00.003-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 290 (+82)
Labour 240 (-106)
Liberal Democrats 88 (+21)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 36 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 378 (Majority of 106)
Lab/Lib 328 (Majority of 6)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 35.7%
Labour 27.7%
Liberal Democrats 27.5%

British Election Projections 5.5.10

2010-05-04T22:43:00.004-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 280 (+72)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 89 (+22)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 46 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 338 (Majority of 26)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 34.7%
Labour 27.9%
Liberal Democrats 27.6%

British Election Projections 5.4.10

2010-05-03T23:18:00.003-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 277 (+69)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 92 (+25)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 49 seats short of a majority

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 341 (Majority of 32)

Popular Vote Averages

Conservatives 34.3%
Liberal Democrats 28.2%
Labour 27.6%

British Election Projections 4.29.10

2010-04-28T23:30:00.003-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 274 (+66)
Labour 249 (-97)
Liberal Democrats 95 (+28)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 52 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 369 (Majority of 88)
Lab/Lib 344 (Majority of 38)

Popular Vote Polling Averages

Conservatives 34.1%
Liberal Democrats 29.1%
Labour 27.7%

British Election Projections 4.28.10

2010-04-28T00:09:00.003-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 272 (+64)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 96 (+29)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 54 seats short

Potential Coalitions

Con/Lib 368 (Majority of 86)
Lab/Lib 346 (Majority of 42)

Polling Averages

Conservatives 33.9%
Liberal Democrats 28.9%
Labour 27.8%

British Election Projection 4.22.10

2010-04-21T23:18:00.002-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 250 (-96)
Liberal Democrats 114 (+47)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 seats short of a majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Popular Vote Averages

Conservatives 32.2%
Liberal Democrats 30.5%
Labour 26.7%

British Election Projections 4.21.10

2010-04-20T23:46:00.004-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 254 (+46)
Labour 253 (-93)
Liberal Democrats 111 (+44)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservatives 72 short of a Majority (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Nationwide Polling Averages

Conservatives 32.4%
Liberal Democrats 30.1%
Labour 27.3%

British Election Projections 4.20.10

2010-04-20T00:21:00.003-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Labour 265 (-81)
Conservatives 251 (+43)
Liberal Democrats 102 (+35)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+3)

Result: Hung Parliament, Labour minority of 14. (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition).

British Election Projections 4.17.10

2010-04-17T18:10:00.002-04:00

326 needed for a majority

Conservatives 288 (+80)
Labour 265 (-81)
Liberal Democrats 66 (-1)
Nationalists/Others 31 (+2)

Result: Hung Parliament/Conservative Minority of 23 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition, Potential Lab/Lib Coalition)

Post Debate Polls Only

Labour 271 (-75)
Conservatives 246 (+38)
Liberal Democrats 101 (+34)
Nationalists/Other 32 (+1)

Result:Hung Parliament/Labour Minority of 25 (Potential Lab/Lib Coalition, Potential Con/Lib Coalition)

British Election Projections 4.15.10

2010-04-15T22:15:00.004-04:00

(326 needed for a majority government)

Conservatives 296 (+88)
Labour 268 (-78)
Liberal Democrats 53 (-14)
Nationalists/Other 33 (+4)

Result: Conservative Minority Government of 28 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition)

British Election Projections 4.7.10

2010-04-08T00:01:00.003-04:00

326 seats needed for a majority

Conservatives 314 (+106)
Labour 254 (-92)
Liberal Democrats 49 (-18)
Nationalists/Others 33 (+4)

Result: Hung Parliament, Conservative Minority Government of 60 (Potential Con/Lib Coalition Government)

Really more of a late night test run than anything, but wanted to get the first one of these out of the way as I'm going to start putting out regular predictions for the British General Election on May 6th, in an attempt to fill the political downtime gap while waiting for the American midterm elections start to move into full gear.

Senate Rankings 3.10.10

2010-03-10T19:52:00.002-05:00

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4.5 GOP
Pundit Over/Under: +4 GOP (Cook: +3.5 GOP, CQ: +4 GOP, Roll Call: +4 GOP, Sabato: +4.5 GOP)
Narrow Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 51-49 DEM (+8 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of seven to nine seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Changes Since Last Update: Status Quo (+1 DEM, +1 GOP)

From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Indiana
From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Pennsylvania

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Delaware (Special), Indiana

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Nevada, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Pennsylvania, Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana

House Rankings 2.3.10

2010-02-03T21:12:00.001-05:00

House: +14 GOP

Current House: 256-178 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+40 GOP needed for takeover)

Projected House: 243-192 DEM (+14 GOP)

Narrow Range: 230-205 DEM (+27 GOP) to 256-179 DEM (+1 GOP)

Wide Range: 228-207 GOP (+50 GOP) to 264-171 DEM (+7 DEM)

Spread: +14 GOP

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of twenty four to thirty seats

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of two seats to a Republican gain of four seats

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (4)

Tennessee 6th, Louisiana 3rd, Arkansas 2nd, Arkansas 1st

Tilts Republican/Tossup (13)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Maryland 1st, Tennessee 8th, Kansas 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 5th, Mississippi 1st, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, Washington 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Pennsylvania 7th, Michigan 7th, New Hampshire 1st, Virginia 2nd, New Hampshire 2nd, Florida 24th, Nevada 3rd, Illinois 14th, New York 29th, New York 19th, New York 24th, New York 23rd

Leans Democratic (23)

Indiana 9th, Missouri 4th, Ohio 18th, South Carolina 5th, Arizona 5th, North Carolina 8th, Wisconsin 8th, New Jersey 3rd, Hawai'i 1st, New York 1st, Texas 17th, North Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 10th, Arizona 8th, New York 13th, Ohio 16th, New York 20th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 11th, Georgia 8th, South Dakota At-Large, Pennsylvania 17th, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Iowa 3rd, California 47th, West Virginia 1st, Virginia 9th, Colorado 3rd, Pennsylvania 8th, Tennessee 4th

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic (2)

Louisiana 2nd, Delaware At-Large

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Illinois 10th

Leans Republican (8)

Pennsylvania 6th, Washington 8th, California 3rd, Pennsylvania 15th, Nebraska 2nd, Minnesota 6th, Ohio 12th, California 44th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (3)

Minnesota 3rd, California 45th, Ohio 2nd

Senate Rankings 2.2.10

2010-02-02T20:09:00.002-05:00

Senate: +6 GOP

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 53-47 DEM (+6 GOP)
Over/Under: +4 GOP
Narrow Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP)
Wide Range: 52-48 DEM (+7 GOP) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
GOP Best Case: A gain of six to eight seats
DEM Best Case: A loss of two seats to a status quo election

Democratic Defenses

Safe Republican

North Dakota

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Delaware

Leans Republican

Arkansas, Nevada

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Colorado, Pennsylvania

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

California, Connecticut

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

New Hampshire, Ohio, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, North Carolina

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida, Louisiana

Senate Rankings 4.28.09 (Snarlin' Arlen Special Edition)

2009-04-28T17:36:00.002-04:00

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 60-40 DEM (+11 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Senate: 61-39 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+5 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+5 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-35-6 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 62-38 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 4 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 5 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 7 GOP 5

Switches from Last Update:

Pennsylvania: GOP HOLD to DEM HOLD

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of six to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of four to six seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (3)
4. Florida (5)
5. Kentucky (6)
6. Connecticut (7)
7. North Carolina (8)
8. Pennsylvania (4)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: None

Senate Rankings 4.25.09

2009-04-25T10:35:00.003-04:00

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for a filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 58-42 DEM (+1 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Wide Range: 55-45 DEM (+4 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 58-35-7 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 5 DEM 2
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 6 DEM 1
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 4
Pundit Spread: +2-3 DEM (Cook: +1-2 DEM, Sabato: +1-2 DEM, CQ: +2-3 DEM, Rothenberg: +3 DEM, Swing State Project: +2-3 DEM)

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of three to five seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of one to three seats

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Kentucky

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Louisiana

Democratic Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Connecticut

Leans Democratic

Illinois, Colorado, Nevada

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, Arkansas

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire (1)
2. Ohio (2)
3. Missouri (4)
4. Pennsylvania (7)
5. Florida (3)
6. Kentucky (5)
7. Connecticut (NR)
8. North Carolina (8)
9. Illinois (NR)
10. Colorado (6)

Dropped Out: Louisiana (9), Nevada (10)

New York 20th Live Blog

2009-03-31T20:22:00.023-04:00

New York 20th

Incumbent: Vacant (Kirsten Gillibrand appointed to the United States Senate)
Candidates: Scott Murphy (D) vs. St. Rep. Jim Tedisco (R)
District PVI: R +3
Polling: Murphy (D) 45% Tedisco (R) 41% (Siena 3/22-3/24)
Rating: Tilts Democratic Retention/Tossup
% Prediction: Murphy by 2%

100% Reporting (DEM HOLD?)

Murphy (D) 77,344 (50.02%)
Tedisco (R) 77,279 (49.98%)

10:45 PM: Well Murphy goes into the absentee ballot counting and probable recount with a sixty five vote lead. Still it looks like we'll have at least a wait of a couple of weeks before either candidate is sworn in.
10:19 PM: And Murphy takes the lead with three precients still outstanding in Tedisco friendly Saratoga county.
10:12 PM: At this point it seems obvious we're going to a recount with the main question being which candidate is ahead going in.
9:34 PM: And as soon as I say that I'm worried, Murphy takes the lead. So..umm...I'm still very worried, honest.
9:32 PM: For whatever its worth, I've got a bad feeling about this race.
9:25 PM: Countering the positive Democratic augers from Warren County, Tedisco is winning Saratoga County, a county carried by both the President four months ago and Senator Gillibrand in 2006, by sixteen points. Taking into considering that roughly 30-35% of the district's votes come from that county and Murphy's math becomes rather difficult unless he can make up the balance somewhere else.
9:21 PM: After a decent sized vote dump, Tedisco hold on to his lead of roughly three points. One positive sign for the Democrats is that Murphy has a twelve point lead in Warren County which the President won by only three points.
9:18 PM: Tedisco hops out to an early narrow lead. The precincts reporting are spread out in both Democratic and Republican strongholds but it's obviously still far too early to know much of anything.
9:14 PM: Nothing reported as of yet.
8:23 PM: I'll be starting the live blog at 9 PM if I'm able to get home by that time (Then again I'm assuming that no one is actually reading this so...)

Senate Rankings 2/26/09

2009-02-26T02:19:00.004-05:00

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority)
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 57-43 DEM (+2 GOP) to 67-33 DEM (+8 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM (+2 DEM)
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Takeover Opportunities: DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets: DEM 8 GOP 2
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of seven to nine seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of one to three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Democratic gain of two to four seats

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not running for full term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Judd Gregg ("Probably" Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Senate Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Democratic Senate Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin, North Dakota

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Colorado
7. Pennsylvania
8. North Carolina
9. Louisiana
10. Nevada

House Rankings 2/26/09

2009-02-26T02:03:00.004-05:00

House: +2 GOP

Current House: 254-178 DEM with 3 DEM vacancies (+40 GOP needed for turnover)
Projected House: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Narrow Range: 253-182 DEM (+4 GOP) to 257-178 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 236-199 DEM (+21 GOP) to 263-172 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 253-178-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 255-180 DEM (+2 GOP)
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 2 GOP 2
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 4 GOP 0
Strong Turnover Chances: GOP 1 DEM 1
Legitimate Targets: GOP 22 DEM 6
2006/2008 Final Prediction: 840/870 (96.6%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

DEM Best Case: A Democratic gain of roughly four to eight seats

GOP Best Case: A Republican gain of roughly nineteen to twenty three seats

Most Likely Scenario: A Republican gain of roughly five to ten seats

House Vacancies

Democratic (3)

California 32nd-Rep. Hilda Solis (Secretary of Labor) SAFE DEM
Illinois 5th-Rep.Rahm Emanuel (White House Chief of Staff) SAFE DEM
New York 20th-Rep. Kristen Gillibrand (United States Senate) LEANS GOP

Republican (0)

Potential New Seats

District of Columbia At-Large SAFE DEM
Utah 4th SOLID GOP

Republican Defenses

Likely Democratic (1)

Louisiana 2nd

Leans Republican (5)

Washington 8th, Pennsylvania 15th, Pennsylvania 6th, California 44th, Alaska At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (5)

Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Minnesota 6th, California 3rd, South Carolina 1st

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

Michigan 11th, California 50th, Illinois 10th, Iowa 4th, Florida 16th, California 45th, New York 26th, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Florida 13th, Florida 25th

Currently Safe (156)

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican (1)

New York 20th (Special)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Maryland 1st, Mississippi 1st

Leans Democratic (17)

New Hampshire 2nd, Colorado 4th, Virginia 5th, Florida 8th, North Carolina 8th, Michigan 7th, Texas 17th, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Alabama 5th, New Mexico 2nd, Virginia 2nd, New York 29th, New York 24th, Ohio 15th, Ohio 1st, New Hampshire 1st

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (1)

New York 19th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (20)

Illinois 14th, California 11th, Michigan 9th, Nevada 3rd, New York 13th, Indiana 9th, Ohio 18th, Illinois 8th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 2nd, Kansas 3rd, Ohio 16th, Texas 23rd, Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Pennsylvania 4th, Arizona 8th, Illinois 11th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Virginia 11th

Currently Safe (214)

Senate Rankings 2.5.09

2009-02-05T01:27:00.004-05:00

Senate: +1 DEM

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 60-40 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 63-37 DEM (+4 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 66-34 DEM (+7 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-37-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 1
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 7 GOP 3
2006/2008 Final Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 55%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
New Hampshire-Sen. Bonnie Newman (Appointed/Not running for new term)**
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

** Assumes that Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) is confirmed as Secretary of Commerce

Republican Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

New Hampshire

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. New Hampshire
2. Ohio
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Pennsylvania
7. Colorado
8. Louisiana
9. Nevada
10. North Dakota

Governor Rankings 1.29.09

2009-01-29T17:36:00.003-05:00

Governorships: +1 GOP

Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected Governorships: 27-23 DEM (+1 GOP)
Narrow Range: 26-24 GOP (+4 GOP) to 28-22 DEM (S.Q.)
Wide Range: 33-17 GOP (+11 GOP) to 38-12 DEM (+10 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 24-22-4 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 26-24 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: DEM 3 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defenses: DEM 3 GOP 1
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): GOP 4 DEM 3
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): GOP 11 DEM 10
2006/2008 Prediction Accuracy: 47/47 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 10%

Open Seats

Democratic

Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Term-Limited)
Maine-Gov. John Baldacci (Term-Limited)
Michigan-Gov. Jennifer Granholm (Term-Limited)
New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (Term-Limited)
Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (Term-Limited)
Oregon-Gov. Ted Kulongoski (Term-Limited)
Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (Term-Limited)
Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (Term-Limited)
Virginia-Gov. Tim Kaine (Term-Limited)
Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (Term-Limited)

Republican

Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (Term-Limited)
California-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Term-Limited)
Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (Term-Limited)
Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (Term-Limited)
Rhode Island-Gov. Don Carcieri (Term-Limited)
South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (Term-Limited)
South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (Term-Limited)

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic

Hawaii, Rhode Island, California

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Nevada

Leans Republican

Arizona, Minnesota, Vermont, South Dakota, Georgia, Connecticut

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Alabama

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Florida

Democratic Defenses

Leans Republican

Wyoming, Oklahoma, Kansas, Tennessee

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Virginia (2009)

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Michigan, Pennsylvania

Leans Democratic

New Jersey (2009), Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Ohio, Maine, Oregon

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Colorado, Iowa

Top Twenty Turnover Targets

1. Wyoming
2. Hawaii
3. Oklahoma
4. Kansas
5. Rhode Island
6. California
7. Tennessee
8. Nevada
9. Virginia
10. Michigan
11. Pennsylvania
12. Arizona
13. Minnesota
14. Vermont
15. New Jersey
16. South Dakota
17. Wisconsin
18. New Mexico
19. Georgia
20. Connecticut

Senate Rankings 1.29.09

2009-01-29T15:52:00.003-05:00

Senate: Status Quo

Current Senate: 59-41 DEM* (+10 GOP needed for takeover, +1 DEM needed for filibuster proof majority
Projected Senate: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.)
Narrow Range: 59-41 DEM (S.Q.) to 62-38 DEM (+3 DEM)
Wide Range: 56-44 DEM (+3 GOP) to 65-35 DEM (+6 DEM)
Unassigned Tossups: 59-38-3 DEM
50/50 Tossups: 60-40 DEM or 61-39 DEM
Current Tossup Leads: GOP 3 DEM 0
Current Tossup Defenses: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 0 GOP 0
Legitimate Targets (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 6 GOP 3
2006/2008 Senate Prediction Accuracy: 68/68 (100%)
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority: 30%

* Counts both Independent Senators (Lieberman and Sanders) as Democrats and assumes that Franken is seated

Retirements/Open Seats

Democratic

Delaware-Sen. Ted Kaufman (Appointed/Not Running for Full Term)

Republican

Florida-Sen. Mel Martinez (Retiring)
Kansas-Sen. Sam Brownback (Running for Governor)
Missouri-Sen. Kit Bond (Retiring)
Ohio-Sen. George Voinovich (Retiring)

Republican Defenses

Tilts Republican/Tossup

Ohio, Florida, Missouri

Leans Republican

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Louisiana

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kansas

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Colorado, Nevada, North Dakota

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Wisconsin

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Illinois

Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Missouri
4. Kentucky
5. Pennsylvania
6. Colorado
7. Louisiana
8. Nevada
9. North Dakota
10. Kansas

Election Night Big Board and Live Blog

2008-11-04T17:00:00.061-05:00

President of the United States (270 to win) (DEM GAIN)

Barack Obama (D) 365 (365) (+113)
John McCain (R) 173 (173) (-113)

United States Senate (51 needed for majority) (DEM HOLD)

Democrats 58 (58) (+8)
Republicans 41 (42) (-7)
Independents 0 (0) (-1)
Outstanding 1 (1 GOP leading)

United States House (218 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)

Democrats 257 (257) (+21)
Republicans 178 (178) (-21)

Governorships (26 needed for majority)(DEM HOLD)

Democrats 29 (29) (NC)
Republicans 21 (21) (NC)

The Live Blog:

11/5/08 5:50 PM: While Gordon Smith clings to a surprising and narrow lead in the Oregon Senate Race, the number of outstanding ballots in Portland and Eugene leads me to believe that Merkely will win by roughly 100,000 votes once they are all counted. Therefore I have moved Oregon into the Dem leading column despite the simply fact that Smith still leads in actual counted votes for the moment. Included below are the predicted distribution of the remaining vote. (calculated by making the rough assumption that counties will continue to vote in the same percentage as has already been counted). I'll be continuing to track this race at least until Portland reports in full.

Oregon: Smith +1,000

Benton (65% Reporting)-Merkley +4,100
Clatsop (80% Reporting)-Merkley +200
Columbia (86% Reporting)-Merkley +100
Coos (89% Reporting)-Smith +300
Douglas (81% Reporting)-Smith +2,900
Josephine (79% Reporting)-Smith +2,200
Klamath (76% Reporting)- Smith +3,800
Lane (45% Reporting)-Merkley +29,500
Malheur (83% Reporting)-Smith +1,000
Marion (59% Reporting)-Smith +6,400
Multnomah (Portland) (49% Reporting)-Merkely +80,000
Washington (78% Reporting)-Merkely +1,400

Estimated Final Result: Merkely +97,000

11/4/08 10:16 PM: Down goes Shays (finally)

11/4/08 9:47 PM:We are now confident enough to project that Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States with no fewer than 277 electoral votes. We also believe that the networks will call the election for Senator Obama at 11 PM when the polls in California close.

11/4/08 9:28 PM: Obama draws first blood as NBC and Fox call Ohio for Obama. And New Mexico also is called for Obama by NBC. Which by my count is enough.

11/4/08 9:06 PM: Some more exits

Arizona: McCain 49.5% Obama 48.5%
Colorado: Obama 52.6% McCain 45.4%
New Mexico: Obama 55.7% McCain 42.8%

Colorado Senate: Udall 51.6% Schaffer 44%
Louisiana Senate: Landrieu 55.2% Kennedy 42.8%
Minnesota Senate: Franken 47.7% Coleman 37.8% Barkley 14.5%

11/14/08 9:02 PM: It's quite clear by this point that Barack Obama will carry all the Kerry states (no pun intended) but he has yet to break through in a single Bush 04 state and the early call in North Dakota combined with McCain's lead in Virginia is making me a tad nervous.

11/4/08 8:18 PM: With Jeanne Shaheen's projected victory in New Hampshire, we now project that the Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate

11/4/08 8:14 PM: Right now McCain doesn't just need an inside straight but a royal flush, maybe he'll get it but if the exits are right the line will crumble and crumble in many places.

11/4/08 8:07 PM: NBC has called Pennsylvania for Barack Obama, the major path for McCain appears to have closed off assuming NBC is right of course.

11/4/08 8:02 PM:More exits again

Florida: Obama 49.5% McCain 48.5%
Missouri: Obama 53.1% McCain 45.4%

Mississippi Senate: Wicker 51.6% Musgrove 48.4%

11/4/08 7:58 PM: You know, I'm starting to think that I might not be particularly good at this whole live blogging thing.

11/4/08 7:30 PM: Even more crappy exits

North Carolina: Obama 51.4% McCain 47.6%
Ohio: Obama 53% McCain 45%
West Virginia: McCain 53.9% Obama 44.1%

North Carolina Senate: Hagan 51.8% Dole 43.2%

11/4/08 7:00 PM: I know, I know exits polls suck but still here's the early ones

Indiana: Obama 52.2% McCain 46.4%
Virginia: Obama 54.2% McCain 44.9%
Georgia: McCain 49.5% Obama 48%
South Carolina: McCain 52.2% Obama 46.4%

Georgia Senate: Chambliss 49.1% Martin 46%
Kentucky Senate: McConnell 53.8% Lunsford 46.1%

11/4/08 7:00 PM- NBC calls Kentucky for McCain and Vermont for Obama, Indiana too close to call. Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina too early to call.

11/4/08 6:55 PM-Obama slightly ahead in Indiana even without Gary or Indy reporting, while Kentucky is close at the moment but only because Louisville just did a massive vote dump. Oh yeah, the updating every race is a crazy idea, I think I'm going back to my original plan unless a race is close and has a large percentage of the vote reporting.

11/4/08 6:20 PM-And of course it's time for the typical hour long lull until more states close at 7.

11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives

11/4/08 6:00 PM- We are confident enough to project that the Democrats will retain a majority of governorships

11/4/08 6:00 PM- As polls close in eastern Indiana and Kentucky, we are ready to make the following calls in races where one party is predicted to win by at least fourteen points (none of that wussy waiting for people to actually stop voting needed for me to make some calls) :)

Presidential Race:

Senator Obama: 13 states and D.C. for 190 electoral votes
Senator McCain: 7 states for 42 electoral votes

Senate: 12 seats (including a pickup in Virginia) for the Democrats and 11 seats for the Republicans

House: 218 seats for the Democrats and 143 seats for the Republicans

Governorships: 4 governorships for the Democrats and 2 governorships for the Republicans

11/4/08 6:00 PM- Game On

11/4/08 4:19 PM-Well, we're about 100 minutes away from the first poll closings and the official start of election night. (Although the first time we'll actually get any results is probably 7 P.M.). Before I take another quick nap and order the election night pizza, I thought I should take a moment to show how results will be reported on here. Outside of the big board which should provide a nice basic overview, I will be providing more detailed data for the individual races than I originally planned including the current margin in both raw votes and percentage, the percentage of votes already counted, and if a race is still too close to call with at least 60% reporting, the remaining percentage needed for the candidate currently trailing to take the lead. For example, let's say that in the North Carolina Senate Race Kay Hagan is leading Liddy Dole by 150,000 votes or 5 percentage points with 80% reporting, the entry for the North Carolina Senate Race would look something like this.

North Carolina (Hagan +150,000/+5%) (80% Reporting) (Dole needs 63%)

Anyway, I'll be back on starting at 6, but if you have any questions feel free to leave them in the comments and I'll try to respond as quickly as possible. Thanks .

11/2/08 8:38 AM-With the movement of Pennsylvania 4th from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, I will be calling the House of Representatives for Democratic Retention at 6 PM EST Tuesday Night. Of course this presumes that there are no other moves dropping the Democrats back below the 218 threshold in the next 58 hours. While not a particularly huge surprise, Democrats should be happy to start election night with a congressional chamber all ready in hand.

11/1/08 9:40 PM-Okay while I'm still trying to work out a few bugs, I think things are stable enough that I can give a brief overview of my plan for Tuesday night. Election coverage will consist of two major parts, the liveblog and the big board. The live blog will start at 6:00 PM EST on election day (the same time the polls in eastern Indiana and Kentucky close). My goal is to provide insight on both the big races and the smaller ones which might get overlooked by a news media certain to focus on the presidential race. The second section is the big board which will track the results of 28 state level presidential contests, 13 senate seats, 75 house seats and 5 governorships (with the possibility of adding still more races). Basically, I am planning on tracking every race that I rate as likely, leans or tilts. Meanwhile all races that are rated as solid or safe heading into election night will be automatically projected for the leading party at 6 PM, regardless of whether or not polls have closed yet in that state, as can be currently seen in the toplines and presidential projection map. As for the tracking itself, instead of trying to keep up with transcribing the numbers from CNN, I'm simply going to use color coding. Light Blue or Salmon will indicate that either the Democrat or Republican is leading while a darker hue will indicate that the race has been called. As for the top lines, the first number indicates the number of electoral votes/seats/governorships currently projected. The first set of numbers in parentheses reflects the current prediction (initially the final prediction numbers from November 3rd, with adjustments as the night goes on) while the second set of parentheses indicates the overall change from the previous election. Finally, assuming that everything goes well I will be updating the election map every fifteen minutes. Feel free to ask any questions and leave any comments about the format of the election night live blog and I hope to see everyone (metaphorically speaking) on Tuesday.

11/1/08 8:22 PM-Still Testing

Obama Presidential Targets

1. Iowa (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Takeover Line--------
4. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
5. Nevada (DEM GAIN)
6. Ohio (DEM GAIN)
7. Florida (DEM GAIN)

8. Missouri
9. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
------Predicted Turnover Line----------
10. Indiana (DEM GAIN)
11. Montana
12. North Dakota
13. Georgia
14. Arizona
15. South Dakota
16. Arkansas
17. West Virginia
18. South Carolina
19. Louisiana
20. Texas
21. Mississippi
22. Kentucky
23. Tennessee

McCain Presidential Targets

1. Pennsylvania
2. New Hampshire
3. Minnesota
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan

Democratic Senate Targets

1. Virginia (DEM GAIN)
2. New Mexico (DEM GAIN)
3. Colorado (DEM GAIN)
4. New Hampshire (DEM GAIN)
5. Alaska (DEM GAIN)
6. Oregon (DEM GAIN)
7. North Carolina (DEM GAIN)
8. Minnesota (Recount)
-----Predicted Turnover Line-------
9. Georgia
10. Kentucky
11. Mississippi (Special)
12. Maine

Republican Senate Targets

1. Louisiana

Democratic House Targets

1. New York 13th (DEM GAIN)
2. New York 25th (DEM GAIN)
3. Virginia 11th (DEM GAIN)
4. Florida 24th (DEM GAIN)
5. Arizona 1st (DEM GAIN)
6. Illinois 11th (DEM GAIN)
7. Ohio 16th (DEM GAIN)
8. Alaska At-Large
9. Ohio 15th (DEM GAIN)
10. New Mexico 1st (DEM GAIN)
11. New Jersey 3rd (DEM GAIN)
12. New York 29th (DEM GAIN)
13. Michigan 9th (DEM GAIN)
14. North Carolina 8th (DEM GAIN)
15. Florida 8th (DEM GAIN)
16. Colorado 4th (DEM GAIN)
17. Pennsylvania 3rd (DEM GAIN)
18. Connecticut 4th (DEM GAIN)
19. Nevada 3rd (DEM GAIN)
20. New Mexico 2nd (DEM GAIN)
21. Washington 8th
22. Minnesota 6th
23. Michigan 7th (DEM GAIN)
24. Minnesota 3rd
25. New Jersey 7th
26. Ohio 1st (DEM GAIN)
27. Idaho 1st (DEM GAIN)
28. Illinois 10th
29. California 4th
--------Predicted Turnover Line--------
30. Louisiana 4th
31. Florida 25th
32. Florida 21st
33. Alabama 2nd (DEM GAIN)
34. Missouri 9th
35. Maryland 1st (DEM GAIN)
36. New York 26th
37. Kentucky 2nd
38. Nebraska 2nd
39. Virginia 2nd (DEM GAIN)
40. Virginia 5th (DEM GAIN)
41. Nevada 2nd
42. Ohio 2nd
43. Wyoming At-Large
44. Arizona 3rd
45. Indiana 3rd
46. Texas 7th
47. West Virginia 2nd
48. Texas 10th
49. South Carolina 1st
50. Pennsylvania 18th
51. California 50th
52. Florida 13th
53. New Jersey 5th
54. Iowa 4th
55. Missouri 6th
56. Pennsylvania 15th

Republican House Targets

1. Florida 16th (GOP GAIN)
2. Texas 22nd (GOP GAIN)
3. Pennsylvania 11th
---------Predicted Turnover Line------------
4. Alabama 5th
5. Kansas 2nd (GOP GAIN)
6. Louisiana 6th (GOP GAIN)
7. New Hampshire 1st
8. Georgia 8th
9. Pennsylvania 12th
10. California 11th
11. Wisconsin 8th
12. Pennsylvania 10th
13. Mississippi 1st
14. New York 20th
15. Arizona 5th
16. Arizona 8th
17. Texas 23rd
18. Illinois 14th
-----------------------------
32. Louisiana 2nd (GOP GAIN)

Democratic Governor Targets

1. Missouri (DEM GAIN)
-------Predicted Turnover Line--------
2. Indiana
3. Vermont

Republican Governor Targets

1. North Carolina
2. Washington

House Ratings Final

2008-11-03T21:27:00.001-05:00

House: +26 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 262-173 DEM (+26 DEM)
Narrow Range: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 265-170 DEM (+29 DEM)
Wide Range: 227-208 DEM (+9 GOP) to 283-152 DEM (+47 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 250-170-15 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 257-178 (+21 DEM) to 258-177 (+22 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 3
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 13 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 18 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 48 GOP 12
2006 Accuracy: 420/435 (96.6%) (Predicted: +29 DEM, Actual: +30 DEM)

Long Story Short: The Democrats are certain to maintain control of the House of Representatives gaining at least twenty seats, with an excellent chance of forming the largest house majority, for either party, since 1992.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon (I hope)

* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties

Switches from October 30th: +3 DEM

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, California 4th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (3)

New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Leans Democratic (15)

Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, Ohio 15th, New Mexico 1st, New Jersey 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 9th, North Carolina 8th, Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (11)

Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, Ohio 1st, Idaho 1st, Illinois 10th, California 4th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Louisiana 4th†, Florida 25th

Leans Republican (17)

Florida 21st, Alabama 2nd, Missouri 9th, Maryland 1st, New York 26th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Virginia 5th, Nevada 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, West Virginia 2nd, Texas 10th

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

South Carolina 1st, Pennsylvania 18th, California 50th, Florida 13th, New Jersey 5th, Iowa 4th, Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 15t

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (11)

California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Ohio 14th, Illinois 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, California 26th, Illinois 13th, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (132)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Leans Republican (1)

Texas 22nd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Pennsylvania 11th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (8)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, California 11th, Pennsylvania 12th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kansas 3rd, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (209)

Presidential Projection Final

2008-11-03T19:49:00.003-05:00

Election Day (more or less)

Election Night Live Blog

Final Predictions

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +26 DEM

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-157-70

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

(70 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from November 1st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 381-157

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 396-142

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Long Story Short: Assuming that the polling data is even remotely accurate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States, winning at least 291 electoral votes.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%) (132)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Illinois, Vermont, Delaware, California, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%) (58)

Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Oregon, Maine, Washington

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%) (74)

Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%) (47)

Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%) (53)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%) (17)

Indiana, Montana, North Dakota

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%) (25)

Georgia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%) (90)

South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Kentucky, Tennessee

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%) (9)

Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%+) (33)

Nebraska, Alabama, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Oklahoma

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 12.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Nevada-Obama 5.9%
5. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 1.9%
8. Missouri-Obama .4%
9. North Carolina-Obama .1%
10. Indiana-McCain 1%
11. Montana-McCain 2.8%
12. North Dakota-McCain 3%
13. Georgia-McCain 4.4%
14. Arizona-McCain 5.1%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 8.9%

Senate Ratings Final

2008-11-03T19:35:00.002-05:00

Senate: +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 52-47-1 DEM (+2 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 57-41-1-1 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 57-42-1 DEM(+7 DEM) or 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 1 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 1 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 7 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
2006 Accuracy: 33/33 (100%)
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 20%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 7%

Long Story Short: The Democrats will register large gains, gaining their strongest majority since the Carter administration. However, they will fall short of a filibuster proof majority unless they somehow pull off an upset in at least one of three southern seats which Lean Republican.

Long Story Long: Tomorrow Afternoon

Switches from October 30th: None

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico, Colorado

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Alaska, Oregon, North Carolina

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Minnesota

Leans Republican

Georgia†, Kentucky, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 11.1.08

2008-11-01T12:05:00.002-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

3 days until Election Day

Slight widening for Obama in the national vote. Obama's lead in Nevada goes (ever so slightly) over five points. McCain's margin in three states (Arizona, Georgia and Montana) falls below that same threshold. Pennsylvania now McCain's best Kerry state but Obama still currently favored to win by nine points.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 31st: Obama +.6

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 403-135

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, North Carolina, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Arizona, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 10.3%
3. Colorado-Obama 7.2%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.2%
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0% (5.03)
6. Ohio-Obama 4.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. North Carolina-Obama .9%
9. Missouri-Obama .6%
10. Indiana-McCain .9%
11. Arizona-McCain 4.9%
12. Georgia-McCain 4.9%
13. Montana-McCain 5.0% (4.95)
14. North Dakota-McCain 5.1%
15. West Virginia-McCain 7.3%

Presidential Projection 10.31.08

2008-10-31T10:16:00.003-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

4 days until Election Day

Obama/Biden 364 (52.8) McCain/Palin 174 (46.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 30th: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Illinois, Massachusetts, Delaware, California

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, South Carolina, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.6%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.4%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 6.1
5. Nevada-Obama 5.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 4.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 1.1%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. Montana-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. West Virginia-McCain 6.1%
15. Arizona-McCain 6.6%

Senate Rankings 10.30.08

2008-10-30T12:31:00.002-04:00

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 56-41-1-2 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 57-42-1 (+7 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 2 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 2 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 6 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 25%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 10%

Switches from October 23rd: None

†-December runoff currently projected

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

Colorado, New Hampshire, Oregon, Alaska

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina, Minnesota

Leans Republican

Georgia†, Mississippi (Special), Kentucky, Maine

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

House Ranking 10.30.08

2008-10-30T12:25:00.001-04:00

House +23 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 259-176 DEM (+23 DEM)
Narrow Range: 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM) to 266-169 DEM (+30 DEM)
Wide Range: 226-209 DEM (+10 GOP) to 280-155 DEM (+44 DEM)
Pundit Spread*: +23 DEM (Cook: +20-21 DEM, CQ: +17 DEM, Sabato: +30-31 DEM, Rothenberg: +23-24 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 246-169-20 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 256-179 (+20 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 13 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 18 DEM 2
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 14 GOP 2
Targets in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 45 GOP 14

* Pundit Spread determined by assigning all seats to party currently favored and dividing any remaining tossups evenly between the two major parties

Switches from October 15th: +5 DEM (+6 DEM, +1 GOP)

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Illinois 10th
From GOP GAIN to DEM HOLD: Alabama 5th
From DEM HOLD to GOP GAIN: Pennsylvania 11th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

†-December runoff currently projected

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (3)

New York 13th, New York 25th, Virginia 11th

Leans Democratic (11)

Florida 24th, Arizona 1st, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st, Ohio 15th New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

Florida 8th, Colorado 4th, Nevada 3rd, Michigan 9th, Washington 8th, Minnesota 6th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, Minnesota 3rd, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Illinois 10th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (6)

Ohio 1st, California 4th, Idaho 1st, Louisiana 4th†, Florida 21st, New York 26th

Leans Republican (13)

Alabama 2nd, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Missouri 9th, Kentucky 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd, Indiana 3rd, Nevada 2nd,West Virginia 2nd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Missouri 6th, Pennsylvania 18th, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Texas 10th, Iowa 4th, Virginia 5th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Illinois 6th, California 46th, California 3rd, North Carolina 5th, Pennsylvania 6th, Minnesota 2nd, Alabama 3rd, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (136)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Leans Republican (1)

Texas 22nd

Tilts Republican/Tossup (1)

Pennsylvania 11th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (1)

Alabama 5th

Leans Democratic (9)

Kansas 2nd, Louisiana 6th, New Hampshire 1st, Georgia 8th, Wisconsin 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (6)

Mississippi 1st, New York 20th, Pennsylvania 4th, Texas 23rd, Illinois 14th, Pennsylvania 12th,

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (9)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Kentucky 3rd, Kansas 3rd, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (208)

Presidential Projection 10.30.08

2008-10-30T10:00:00.005-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
House: +23 DEM (Updated 10.30.08)
Governorships: +1 DEM

5 days until Election Day

McCain closes to within seven in the national margin. Obama surges in the southwest as New Mexico turns dark blue for the second time this week and Arizona changes to a pinkish shade. New Congressional Ratings will be out sometime this afternoon.

Obama/Biden 364 (52.8) McCain/Palin 174 (46.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 28th: McCain +1.2

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois, Delaware

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Washington, Maine

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Arizona

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, Idaho

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.4%
3. Virginia-Obama 6.6%
4. Colorado-Obama 6.4%
5. Nevada-Obama 4.9%
6. Ohio-Obama 4.4%
7. Florida-Obama 2.6%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.2%
10. Indiana-McCain 1.o%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. Montana-McCain 5.9%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. West Virginia-McCain 6.1%
15. Arizona-McCain 7.3%

Presidential Projection 10.28.08

2008-10-28T00:26:00.005-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

1 week until Election Day

New Mexico returns to a light shade of blue, moving back to Leans Obama after one day in the likely column.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.4) McCain/Palin 174 (45.6)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 27th: McCain +.8

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Illinois

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

California, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Oregon

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Washington, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arizona, Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Louisiana, Kentucky

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 11.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.9%
3. Virginia-Obama 6.5%
4. Colorado-Obama 6.2%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.2%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.6%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.5%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.7%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.4%
12. North Dakota-McCain 5.8%
13. West Virginia-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.0%
15. Arizona-McCain 8.2%

Presidential Projection 10.27.08

2008-10-27T10:06:00.001-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

8 days until election day

New Hampshire and New Mexico turn a darker hue of blue moving to Likely Obama. Obama losing ground in early morning trackers (which will be added in tomorrow's projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.8) McCain/Palin 174 (45.2)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 26th: McCain +.4

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.9%
2. New Mexico-Obama 8.0%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.6%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.9%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.5%
7. Florida-Obama 2.3%
8. Missouri-Obama 2.1%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.5%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.2%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.3%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.7%
14. Montana-McCain 5.9%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 8.5%

Presidential Projection 10.24.08

2008-10-23T22:45:00.004-04:00

Senate: +8 DEM
House: +18 DEM
Governorships: +1 DEM

9 days until election day

Race has been remarkably stable over the last week, with some minor movement in some states but that's about it.

Obama/Biden 364 (54) McCain/Palin 174 (45)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 24th: Obama +1

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 375-163

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, California, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, New Jersey

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Maine, Oregon, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Georgia, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, South Dakota, Mississippi, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas, Alaska

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.7%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.8%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.4%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.7%
5. Ohio-Obama 4.7%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Florida-Obama 2.1%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.1%
10. Indiana-McCain 0.4%
11. Georgia-McCain 5.5%
12. West Virginia-McCain 5.7%
13. North Dakota-McCain 5.9%
14. Montana-McCain 6.1%
15. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%

Presidential Projection 10.23.08

2008-10-23T02:06:00.001-04:00

New Senate Rankings: +8 DEM
New House Rankings: +18 DEM
New Governor Rankings: +1 DEM

12 days until election day

McCain's lead in West Virginia moves over five points. Otherwise a rather boring day, at least from the horse race perspective.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5) McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana

(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st: None

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 375-163

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, South Dakota, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona, Kentucky, South Carolina

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.2%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.2%
7. Florida-Obama 2.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 5.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%

Governor Rankings 10.23.08

2008-10-23T01:30:00.001-04:00

Governors: +1 DEM

Current Governorships: 28-22 DEM (+4 GOP needed to have a majority of governorships)
Projected Governorships: 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Narrow Range: 28-22 DEM (S.Q.) to 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Wide Range: 26-24 DEM (+2 GOP) to 29-21 DEM (+1 DEM)
Pundit Spread: Status Quo (Cook: S.Q., Sabato: S.Q., CQ: +1 DEM, Rothenberg: S.Q.
Likelihood of Turnover: 0%

Switches since July 23rd: None

Republican Defenses

Leans Democratic

Missouri

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive

Indiana, Vermont

Democratic Defenses

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina

Leans Democratic

Washington

House Rankings 10.23.08

2008-10-23T01:03:00.005-04:00

House +18 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 254-181 DEM (+18 DEM)
Narrow Range: 240-195 DEM (+4 DEM) to 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 224-211 DEM (+12 GOP) to 277-158 DEM (+41 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +17 DEM (Cook: +14-15 DEM, Sabato: +22 DEM, CQ:+12-13 DEM, Rothenberg:+18-19 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 240-174-21 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM) to 251-184 DEM (+15 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 14 GOP 7
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 4
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 9 GOP 1
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 42 GOP 14

Switches from October 15th: +4 DEM

From GOP HOLD to DEM GAIN: Florida 24th, Florida 8th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (7)

Arizona 1st, Virginia 11th, Illinois 11th, Ohio 16th, Florida 24th, Alaska At-Large, New Mexico 1st

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (12)

New Jersey 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Minnesota 3rd, Florida 8th, Nevada 3rd, Pennsylvania 3rd, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Michigan 7th, Connecticut 4th, New York 29th, Michigan 9th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (5)

Ohio 1st, New Jersey 7th, New Mexico 2nd, Washington 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (16)

Missouri 9th, California 4th, Illinois 10th, New York 26th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Maryland 1st, Minnesota 6th, Idaho 1st, Alabama 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Missouri 6th, Virginia 2nd, Wyoming At-Large, Arizona 3rd

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Nebraska 2nd, Nevada 2nd, West Virginia 2nd, South Carolina 1st, California 50th, Florida 13th, Indiana 3rd, Texas 7th, New Jersey 5th, Pennsylvania 5th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, California 46th, Virginia 5th, California 3rd, Texas 10th, Pennsylvania 6th, Iowa 4th, North Carolina 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (137)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Likely Republican (1)

Florida 16th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st

Leans Democratic (9)

Louisiana 6th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, California 11th, Arizona 5th, Arizona 8th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (5)

Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th, New York 20th, Texas 23rd, Illinios 14th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, Illinois 8th, Connecticut 5th, Minnesota 1st

Currently Safe (209)

Senate Rankings 10.23.08

2008-10-22T21:12:00.005-04:00

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7-8 DEM (Cook: +7 DEM, Sabato: +7-8DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 55-41-1-3 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM) or 57-42-1 (+7 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 3 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 3 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 5 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 35%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 20%

Switches from October 15th: None

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado, Oregon

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

North Carolina, Minnesota, Alaska

Leans Republican

Mississippi (Special), Georgia, Kentucky, Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Presidential Projection 10.22.08

2008-10-22T09:32:00.004-04:00

13 days until election day

Obama gains in popular vote, breaking six day trend towards McCain. Indiana moves into tossup. Ohio moves back to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 364 (53.5) McCain/Palin 174 (45.5)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 311-163-64

Tossup States: Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana
(64 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 21st: +.8 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 311-227 to Obama 375-163

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Indiana

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, Kentucky, South Dakota, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.9%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.6%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.0%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.0%
7. Florida-Obama 2.8%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.9%
9. North Carolina-Obama 0.7%
10. Indiana-McCain 2.3%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.9%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.8%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.5%
15. Montana-McCain 7.6%

Presidential Projection 10.21.08

2008-10-21T00:29:00.005-04:00

2 weeks until election day

North Carolina turns Tarheel Blue. Florida moves to tossup. Georgia comes into play. McCain gains in popular vote for the sixth straight day (and fifth straight projection).

Obama/Biden 364 (53.1) McCain/Palin 174 (45.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 291-174-73

Tossup States: Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(73 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 20th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 291-247 to Obama 364-174

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Georgia, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 6.0%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.5%
5. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
6. Florida-Obama 2.9%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.8%
9. North Carolina-Obama 1.0%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.7%
14. Georgia-McCain 7.6%
15. Montana-McCain 7.7%

Presidential Projection 10.20.08

2008-10-20T02:00:00.004-04:00

15 days until election day

McCain continues to make up ground in popular vote, while electoral vote stays stable. Ohio moves to Tossup. West Virginia and Montana moves to Lean McCain.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.2) McCain/Palin 189 (45.8)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 318-174-46

Tossup States: Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina
(46 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 18th: +.8 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 318-220 to Obama 364-174

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 364-174

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Illinois, Delaware, California, Connecticut

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, New Jersey, Michigan, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Ohio, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, West Virginia, North Dakota, Montana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.1%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.6%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.1%
5. Florida-Obama 4.0%
6. Nevada-Obama 3.3%
7. Ohio-Obama 2.9%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .2%
10. Indiana-McCain 3.2%
11. West Virginia-McCain 4.3%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.2%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.5%
14. Montana-McCain 7.6% 15. Georgia-McCain 8.1%

Presidential Projection 10.18.08

2008-10-18T10:27:00.003-04:00

17 days until election day

McCain gains in popular vote for third straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Nevada moves to Leans Obama.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.6) McCain/Palin 189 (45.4)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 338-169-31

Tossup States: Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(31 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 17th: +.2 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 338-200 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 3.4%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.7%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. North Dakota-McCain 6.1%
13. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
14. Georgia-McCain 8%
15. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%

Presidential Projection 10.17.08

2008-10-17T11:32:00.003-04:00

18 days until election day

McCain gains in popular vote for second straight day, Obama keeps +160 margin in electoral vote. Obama's lead in Virginia goes over 5 percent.

Obama/Biden 349 (53.7) McCain/Palin 189 (45.3)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36

Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(36 Bush EV, 0 Kerry EV)

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 16th: +.4 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 286-252 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top 15 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2%
2. New Mexico-Obama 7.7%
3. Colorado-Obama 5.5%
4. Virginia-Obama 5.2%
5. Florida-Obama 4.1%
6. Ohio-Obama 3.4%
7. Nevada-Obama 2.8%
8. Missouri-Obama 1.3%
9. North Carolina-McCain .3%
10. West Virgina-McCain 2.2%
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1%
12. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6%
13. North Dakota-McCain 8%
14. Minnesota-Obama 8.1%
15. Washington-Obama 8.7%

Presidential Projection 10.16.08

2008-10-16T00:42:00.003-04:00

19 days until election day

North Dakota Moves Into Play

Obama/Biden 349 (53.9) McCain/Palin 189 (45.1)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36

Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 15th: +.4 McCain

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 273-265 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana, North Dakota

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

Georgia, Montana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Senate Rankings 10.15.08

2008-10-15T15:47:00.005-04:00

Senate +8 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory needed for takeover, +1 GOP or S.Q. with McCain victory)
Projected Senate: 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 58-41-1 DEM (+8 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 62-37-1 DEM (+12 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +7 DEM (Cook: +6-7 DEM, Sabato: +6-7 DEM, CQ: +7 DEM, Rothenberg: +7-8 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-41-1-4 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 4 GOP 0
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 4 DEM 0
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 12 GOP 1
Likelihood of GOP Takeover: -1,000,000,000%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority with Lieberman: 35%
Likelihood of DEM Filibuster Proof Majority without Lieberman: 20%

Switches from October 2nd: +2 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota, North Carolina

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic/Tossup

Oregon, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina

Leans Republican

Mississippi (Special), Maine, Kentucky, Georgia

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Texas

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

House Ranking 10.15.08

2008-10-15T15:17:00.004-04:00

House +14 DEM

After the release of 3Q fundraising numbers last night, Alabama 5th has moved from DEM HOLD to GOP Gain and New Jersey 7th has moved from DEM Gain to GOP Hold. The new numbers are reflected below

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Narrow Range: 238-197 DEM (+2 DEM) t0 261-174 DEM (+25 DEM)
Wide Range: 223-212 DEM (+13 GOP) to 275-160 DEM (+39 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +13 DEM (Cook: +11-12 DEM, Sabato: +15 DEM, CQ: +9 DEM, Rothenberg: +18 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 238-174-23 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 250-185 DEM (+14 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 12 GOP 11
Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 17 DEM 6
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 8 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 39 GOP 15
Likelihood of Turnover: Naught, Nil, Nada, Zip, Zero

Switches from October 1st: +3 DEM (+6 DEM, +3 GOP)

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Michigan 7th, New York 29th, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd
From DEM Gain to GOP Hold: Connecticut 4th, New Jersey 7th
From DEM Hold to GOP Gain: Florida 16th

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (2)

New York 13th, New York 25th

Leans Democratic (6)

Virginia 11th, Alaska At-Large, Illinois 11th, Arizona 1st, New Jersey 3rd, Ohio 16th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (9)

Nevada 3rd, New Mexico 1st, Colorado 4th, Ohio 15th, Minnesota 3rd, North Carolina 8th, Pennsylvania 3rd, New York 29th, Michigan 7th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (8)

Florida 24th, New Jersey 7th, Connecticut 4th, Michigan 9th, Ohio 1st, New Mexico 2nd, Florida 8th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (14)

Illinois 10th, Washington 8th, Florida 21st, Florida 25th, Missouri 9th, New York 26th, California 4th, Alabama 2nd, Virginia 2nd, Maryland 1st, Missouri 6th, Ohio 2nd, Kentucky 2nd, Wyoming At-Large

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Idaho 1st, Nevada 2nd, Arizona 3rd, Florida 13th, West Virginia 2nd, Nebraska 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (8)

Pennsylvania 18th, Texas 7th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Minnesota 2nd

Currently Safe (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (3)

Florida 16th, Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (3)

Pennsylvania 11th, New Hampshire 1st, Louisiana 6th

Leans Democratic (9)

California 11th, Kansas 2nd, Georgia 8th, Pennsylvania 10th, Mississippi 1st, Wisconsin 8th, Arizona 8th, Kentucky 3rd, Pennsylvania 4th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Oregon 5th, Arizona 5th, Indiana 9th, Illinois 14th, New York 20th, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (7)

Ohio 18th, Kansas 3rd, New York 24th, Georgia 12th, Pennsylvania 8th, New Hampshire 2nd, Minnesota 1st, Indiana 8th

Currently Safe (206)

Presidential Projection 10.15.08

2008-10-15T10:45:00.003-04:00

20 days until election day

Obama/Biden 349 (54.1) McCain/Palin 189 (44.9)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 333-169-36

Tossup States: Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 4th: +.8 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 333-205 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): Obama 273-265 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%)

Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, Minnesota

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%)

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%)

Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%)

Indiana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%)

North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%)

Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20%)

Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Canadian Election Live Blog

2008-10-14T01:44:00.062-04:00

Running commentary starts here at 9PM

Live Election Totals (155 needed for majority)

Conservative Party of Canada 137

Liberal Party of Canada 73

Bloc Québécois 47

New Democratic Party 34

Others 2

Numbers taken from the CBC

Final "Predictions" 40th Parliament of Canada

Conservative Party of Canada 128 (+1)
Liberal Party of Canada 87 (-11)
Bloc Québécois 51 (+2)
New Democratic Party 40 (+10)
Others 2 (-2)

Government: Conservative Minority of 41

8:09 PM: I'll be starting the official live blog at 9 PM EST. Of course this should be rather interesting as while I'd like to think that I'm more knowledgeable of Canadian politics than the stereotypical "ugly American", my background is still fairly sketchy. Hell, I'm sort of surprised that Chrétien isn't the Prime Minister any more. So, if anyone sees any obvious mistakes on my end, please let me know. Thanks.

8:55 PM: Well it's almost time to get this thing started. Almost everyone assumes that Harper and the Tories will win another minority government. Still the CSPAN feed starts in a couple of minutes and we'll see if the prediction makers, myself included, are correct or if either Harper can get a majority of Dion and the Liberals can some how sneak into government.

9:00 PM: Game on

9:02 PM: Or not, evidently the US feed only starts making declarations at 9:30 PM.

9:05 PM: I have to say that one lesson we could take from Canadian Election Coverage is showing comedy skits while waiting for the polls to close.

9:10 PM: Rays 5, Red Sox 1 (What?)

9:21 PM: Okay, back to watching the C-SPAN feed of the CBC coverage.

9:29 PM: Looks like things are actually about to get started now.

9:32 PM: Tories lose 3 in Newfoundland, take a majority in PEI, MacKay wins big over May, denying the Green leader a seat in Parliament. Grits out to an early lead, but slightly down from 2006 numbers.

9:37 PM: As always the Liberals run out to an early lead from the Atlantic Provinces, which might hold at least until the Prairies start to report

9:45 PM: I have to say the CBC's habit of counting leaders instead of just races that have already been called is starting to annoy me, as it makes keeping the running tally a bit of a problem. Grits are down in Atlantic Provinces and Ontario. Tories take the first lead of the evening.

9:49 PM: Liberals down about 7 points in Ontario, the big question is if this is enough of a drop off to give the Tories an opening for a majority?

10:01 PM: The CBC has called the election for the Conservatives, with the margin the only question.

Conservative Marginal Defenses (28)

Avalon

St. John's East

St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Tobique-Mactaquac

Central Nova

Beauport-Limoilou

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles

Louis-Hébert

Pontiace

Burlington

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Mississauga Streetsville

Oshawa

Ottawa-Orleans

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Thunder Bay-Superior North

Winnipeg South

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

Palliser

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre

Edmonton Strathcona

Fleetwood-Port Kells

Kamloops-Thomson-Cariboo

Nanaimo-Alberni

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission

Richmond

Vancouver Kingsway

Liberal Marginal Defenses (27)

Egmont

Fredericton

Madawaska-Restigouche

Saint John

West Nova

Honoré-Mercier

Hull-Aylmer

Laval-Les Isles

Lasalle-Emard

Westmount-Ville-Marie

Beaches-East York

Brant

Halton

Huron-Bruce

Mississauga South

Newmarket-Aurora

Oakville

Thunder Bay-Rainy River

Churchill

Saint Boniface

Winnipeg South Centre

Wascana

Nunavut

Newton-North Delta

North Vancouver

Vancouver Centre

Vancouver Quadra

NDP Marginal Defenses (10)

Halifax

Outremont

Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

London-Fanshawe

Ottawa Centre

Parkdale-High Park

Western Arctic

Burnaby-Douglas

Surrey North

Vancouver Island North

Bloc Marginal Defenses (10)

Ahuntsic

Berthier-Maskinonge

Brossard-La Prairie

Chicoutimi-Le Fjord

Gatineau

Jeanne-Le Ber

Papineau

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot

Sherbrooke

Vaudreuil-Soulanges

Indy Marginal Defenses (1)

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

Presidential Projection 10.14.08

2008-10-14T00:34:00.005-04:00

3 weeks until Election Day

Obama/Biden 349 (53.7) McCain/Palin 189 (45.3)

With Tossups Unassigned: Obama 313-169-56

Tossup States: Ohio, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia
(Bush EV's 56, Kerry EV's 0)

Switches from October 4th: +11 Obama

From McCain to Obama: Missouri

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 4th: +1.6 Obama

Narrow Range (States within 3 points): Obama 313-225 to Obama 369-169

Medium Range (States within 5 points): McCain 274-264 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling: Obama 349-189

The liveblog for the Canadian Election starts at 9:00 PM here

Some quick bookkeeping. First, starting today I will be updating the presidential numbers everyday, generally very late in the evening/very early in the morning. Also, I have expanded the the tossup classification from any race within two points, to any within three as two points simply no longer strikes me as a secure enough of a lead to designate the race as leaning. Finally I have adjusted the projection formula to place a heavier weight on state polling numbers, in an attempt to keep 2004 results from contradicting a potential solid lead in current polling. This change helps Obama in North Carolina and McCain in Michigan and Minnesota, although not enough to change any state's classification. (This is what I get for devising a presidential projection formula and rating system on the fly. Three weeks before election day I feel the urge to make seemingly random tweaks in an spasm of neurotic second guessing.)

State by State Projections

Safe Obama (Obama by 20+%) (41)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, New York

Solid Obama (Obama by 14-20%) (112)

Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maryland, Delaware, Illinois, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (Obama by 8-14%) (65)

Pennsylvania, Oregon, Iowa, New Jersey, Maine, Washington

Leans Obama (Obama by 3-8%) (105)

Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Colorado

Tilts Obama/Tossup (Obama by 0-3%) (36)

Ohio, Nevada, Missouri

Tilts McCain/Tossup (McCain by 0-3%) (20)

North Carolina, West Virginia

Leans McCain (McCain by 3-8%) (11)

Indiana

Likely McCain (McCain by 8-14%) (86)

North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (McCain by 14-20%) (39)

South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska, Kansas

Safe McCain (McCain by 20+%) (33)

Nebraska, Alabama, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Idaho, Utah

Top Fifteen Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 10.2% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.9% (2)
3. Virginia-Obama 4.6% (4)
4. Florida-Obama 4.6% (6)
5. Colorado-Obama 4.3% (3)
6. Ohio-Obama 2.9% (7)
7. Nevada-Obama 2.6% (5)
8. Missouri-Obama .9% (8)
9. North Carolina-McCain .1% (9)
10. West Virginia-McCain 2.2% (NR)
11. Indiana-McCain 3.1% (11)
12. New Hampshire-Obama 6.6% (10)
13. Michigan-Obama 6.9% (14)
14. Minnesota-Obama 6.9% (12)
15. Wisconsin-Obama 7.7% (13)

Dropping Out: Pennsylvania (15)

Canadian "Predictions" 10.10.08

2008-10-10T19:56:00.003-04:00

40th Parliament of Canada (155 MP's needed for a majority)

Conservative Party of Canada 132 (+5)

Liberal Party of Canada 84 (-14)

Bloc Québécois 50 (+1)

New Democratic Party 40 (+10)

Others 2 (-2)

Government: Conservative Minority of 48

The polls over the last couple of days have shown an expanding lead for the Conservative Party leading to the Tories now being projected to pick up five seats. However, I still believe that they will fall well short of the numbers needed to form a majority government.

Canadian Election October 14th

2008-10-08T21:42:00.006-04:00

Completely Arbitrary Canadian Election Predictions

40th Parliament of Canada (155 MP's needed for a majority)

Conservative Party of Canada 127 (0)

Liberal Party of Canada 91 (-7)

Bloc Québécois 49 (0)

New Democratic Party 39 (+9)

Others 2 (-2)

Government: Conservative Minority of 36

Well to be fully honest I have absolutely no idea if these numbers are anywhere near accurate as predicting Canadian elections is typically an inexact science even for the experts and my knowledge of politics north of the 49th is rather paltry, at least compared to south of the parallel. Still, as best as I can tell these numbers are more or less in line with the current polling. Despite his earlier hopes, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will only win a minority government (his second consecutive and third consecutive overall) instead of becoming the first Tory leader to win a majority since 1988. However the Liberals are expected to lose at least a handful of seats making the NDP, currently predicted to pick up nine seats, the real winners on come Election Day. However, the Harper minority will probably survive for at least a full year, if not the usually long period of 33 months that his previous government stayed in power. And hopefully I'll be able to think up better commentary by Tuesday night.

Presidential Projection 10.4.08

2008-10-04T01:22:00.002-04:00

Obama/Biden 338 (52.8) McCain/Palin 200 (46.2)

With Tossups: Obama 286-200-52

Switches from October 2nd: None

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from October 2nd: None

Narrow Range: Obama 286-252 to Obama 338-200

Medium Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 349-189

Wide Range: McCain 341-197 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling Only: Obama 338-200

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (44)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa

Leans Obama (96)

Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Colorado, Virginia

Tilts Obama (52)

Nevada, Florida, Ohio

Tilts McCain (0)

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia

Likely McCain (80)

Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, Louisiana, North Dakota, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (42)

Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Kansas

Safe McCain (36)

Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

(New and Expanded) Top Fifteen Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 8.3%
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.1%
3. Colorado-Obama 2.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 2.4%
5. Nevada-Obama 1.6%

6. Florida-Obama 1.4%

7. Ohio-Obama 1.4%

8. Missouri- McCain 2.6%

9. North Carolina-McCain 4%

10. New Hampshire-Obama 4.3%

11. Indiana-McCain 4.8%

12. Minnesota-Obama 5.1%

13. Wisconsin-Obama 5.4%

14. Michigan-Obama 5.9%

15. Pennsylvania-Obama 6.2%

Presidential Projection 10.2.08

2008-10-02T20:16:00.003-04:00

Pre VP Debate Update

Obama/Biden 338 (52.8) McCain/Palin 200 (46.2)

With Tossups: Obama 286-200-52

Switches from September 26th: +52 Obama

McCain to Obama: Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Swing in Projected Popular Vote from September 26th: +2.4 Obama

Narrow Range: Obama 286-252 to Obama 338-200

Medium Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 349-189

Wide Range: McCain 341-197 to Obama 380-158

State by State Polling Only: Obama 338-200

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (44)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey, Iowa

Leans Obama (96)

Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire

Tilts Obama (52)

Florida, Ohio, Nevada

Tilts McCain (0)

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia

Likely McCain (80)

Arkansas, Montana, Georgia, Louisiana, North Dakota, Texas, Arizona

Solid McCain (42)

Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky, Kansas

Safe McCain (36)

Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

(New and Expanded) Top Fifteen Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 8.3%
2. New Mexico-Obama 6.1%
3. Colorado-Obama 2.8%
4. Virginia-Obama 2.4%
5. Florida-Obama 1.4%
6. Ohio-Obama 1.4%
7. Nevada-Obama .9%
8. New Hampshire-Obama 2.3%
9. Missouri-McCain 2.6%
10. North Carolina-McCain 4.5%
11. Indiana-McCain 4.8%
12. Wisconsin-Obama 5.4%
13. Minnesota-Obama 5.7%
14. Michigan-Obama 5.8%
15. Pennsylvania-Obama 6.2%

Senate Rankings 10.2.08

2008-10-02T16:12:00.002-04:00

Senate +6 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP with Obama victory, S.Q. or +1 GOP, depending on Lieberman, with McCain victory needed for GOP takeover)
Projected Senate: 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM)
Wide Range: 51-48-1 DEM (+1 DEM) to 61-38-1 DEM (+11 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +6 DEM (Cook: +6 DEM, Sabato: +6 DEM, CQ: +6 DEM, Rothenberg: +6-7 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 54-42-1-3 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM) or 56-43-1 DEM (+6 DEM)
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 2 GOP 1
Current Tossup Defending Split: DEM 0 GOP 3
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better): DEM 4 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse): DEM 11 GOP 1
Likelihood of Turnover: Naught, Nada, Nil, Nothing

Switches from September 21st: +1 DEM

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Oregon

Republican Defenses

Safe Democratic

Virginia

Likely Democratic

New Mexico

Leans Democratic

Colorado, New Hampshire

Tilts Democratic

Alaska, Oregon

Tilts Republican

North Carolina

Leans Republican

Minnesota, Mississippi (Special), Maine, Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

New Jersey

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets

1. Virginia (1)
2. New Mexico (2)
3. Colorado (4)
4. New Hampshire (3)
5. Alaska (5)
6. Oregon (6)
7. North Carolina (9)
8. Minnesota (7)
9. Louisiana (8)
10. Mississippi (Special) (10)

Dropping Out: None

House Rankings 10.1.08

2008-10-01T12:19:00.004-04:00

House +11 DEM

Current House: 235-199 DEM with 1 DEM vacancy (+19 GOP needed for takeover)
Projected House: 247-188 DEM (+11 DEM)
Narrow Range: 239-196 DEM (+3 DEM) to 255-180 DEM (+19 DEM)
Wide Range: 218-217 GOP (+19 GOP) to 274-161 DEM (+38 DEM)
Pundit Spread: +9-10 DEM (Cook: +10-11 DEM, CQ: +8-9 DEM, Sabato: +9-10 DEM, Rothenberg: +10 DEM)
With Tossups Unassigned: 239-180-16 DEM
With Tossups Split 50/50: 247-188 DEM
Current Tossup Winning Split: DEM 8 GOP 8
Current Tossup Defending Split: DEM 4 GOP 12
Strong Chance of Takeover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 7 GOP 0
Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 38 GOP 20
Likelihood of Turnover: 1%

Switches from September 20th: +4 DEM

From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Louisiana 6th
From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Ohio 16th, Nevada 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Current Vacancy: Ohio 11th (Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones Deceased) SAFE DEM

Republican Defenses (199)

Likely Democratic (1)

New York 13th

Leans Democratic (6)

New York 25th, Illinois 11th, Alaska AL, Arizona 1st, Virginia 11th, New Jersey 3rd

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (6)

New Jersey 7th, Ohio 16th, New Mexico 1st, Ohio 15th, Nevada 3rd, Connecticut 4th

Tilts Republican/Tossup (6)

Minnesota 3rd, Colorado 4th, Washington 8th, Michigan 7th, Florida 24th, Louisiana 4th

Leans Republican (19)

New York 29th, Ohio 1st, Florida 21st, North Carolina 8th, New Mexico 2nd, Pennsylvania 3rd, Michigan 9th, New York 26th, Alabama 2nd, Illinois 10th, Missouri 6th, Florida 8th, Missouri 9th, California 4th, Virginia 2nd, Ohio 2nd, Florida 25th, Florida 13th, Maryland 1st

Likely Republican/Potentially Competitive (7)

West Virginia 2nd, Idaho 1st, Kentucky 2nd, Nevada 2nd, Pennsylvania 6th, Wyoming At-Large, Pennsylvania 15th

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive (10)

Pennsylvania 18th, Illinois 6th, New Jersey 5th, Minnesota 6th, Arizona 3rd, Virginia 5th, Texas 10th, Texas 7th, Minnesota 2nd, Virginia 10th

Currently Safe (144)

Democratic Defenses (236)

Tilts Republican/Tossup (2)

Texas 22nd, Alabama 5th

Tilts Democratic/Tossup (2)

Louisiana 6th, Kansas 2nd

Leans Democratic (16)

New Hampshire 1st, Pennsylvania 11th, Pennsylvania 10th, California 11th, Georgia 8th, Florida 16th, Pennsylvania 4th, Wisconsin 8th, Mississippi 1st, Arizona 8th, Illinois 14th, Kentucky 3rd, Indiana 9th, Oregon 5th, New York 20th, Arizona 5th

Likely Democratic/Potentially Competitive (4)

Kansas 3rd, Illinois 8th, Texas 23rd, Connecticut 5th

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive (8)

Ohio 18th, New York 24th, Georgia 12th, Pennsylvania 8th, Minnesota 1st, New Hampshire 2nd, Indiana 8th, New York 19th

Currently Safe (204)

(Newly Expanded)Top 50 House Turnover Targets

1. New York 13th
2. New York 25th
3. Illinois 11th
4. Alaska AL
5. Arizona 1st
6. Virginia 11th
7. New Jersey 3rd
8. New Jersey 7th
9. Texas 22nd
10. Ohio 16th
11. New Mexico 1st
12. Ohio 15th
13. Nevada 3rd
14. Alabama 5th
15. Connecticut 4th
16. Minnesota 3rd
17. Louisiana 6th
18. Colorado 4th
19. Washington 8th
20. Kansas 2nd
21. Michigan 7th
22. Florida 24th
23. Louisiana 4th
24. New Hampshire 1st
25. New York 29th
26. Ohio 1st
27. Pennsylvania 11th
28. Florida 21st
29. Pennsylvania 10th
30. California 11th
31. Georgia 8th
32. North Carolina 8th
33. Florida 16th
34. Pennsylvania 3rd
35. New Mexico 2nd
36. Wisconsin 8th
37. Pennsylvania 4th
38. Mississippi 1st
39. Michigan 9th
40. Arizona 8th
41. New York 26th
42. Alabama 2nd
43. Illinois 10th
44. Missouri 6th
45. Florida 8th
46. Illinois 14th
47. Kentucky 3rd
48. Missouri 9th
49. Indiana 9th
50. California 4th

Presidential Projection 9.26.08

2008-09-26T19:55:00.004-04:00

Pre-Debate Edition

Obama/Biden 286 (51.6) McCain/Palin 252 (47.4)

With Tossups: Obama 269-200-69

Switches from September 23rd: +13 Obama

McCain to Obama: Virginia

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 23rd: +.6 Obama

Narrow Range: Draw 269-269 to Obama 338-200

Wide Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (14)

Washington D.C., Hawaii, Vermont, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (139)

Massachusetts, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, California

Likely Obama (37)

Maine, Oregon, Washington, New Jersey

Leans Obama (79)

Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Colorado

Tilts Obama (17)

New Hampshire, Virginia

Tilts McCain (52)

Ohio, Nevada, Florida

Leans McCain (42)

Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (70)

Arkansas, Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, North Dakota, Texas

Solid McCain (35)

Arizona, Mississippi, South Carolina, South Dakota, Kentucky

Safe McCain (44)

Kansas, Tennessee, Alaska, Alabama, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.0% (1)

2. New Mexico-Obama 5.4% (2)

3. Colorado-Obama 2.8% (3)

4. Virginia-Obama .4% (5)

5. Ohio-McCain .6% (6)

6. Nevada-McCain .7% (4)

7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.8% (7)

8. Florida-McCain 1.8% (8)

9. Missouri-McCain 4.0% (NR)

10. Pennsylvania-Obama 4.1% (10)

Dropping Out Since Tuesday: Wisconsin (9)

The Bottom Line/Daily Update

2008-09-24T21:23:00.005-04:00

President: Obama 273-265 (Obama +3.6)

Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)

House: 246-189 DEM (+10 DEM)

Changes from last major update (President 9/23/08, Congress 9/20/08)

President: None

Senate: None

House: +3 DEM

From GOP Gain to DEM Hold: Louisiana 6th

From GOP Hold to DEM Gain: Ohio 16th, Nevada 3rd

The Presidential Top 10 Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 6.6% (1)

2. New Mexico-Obama 4.7% (2)

3. Colorado-Obama 2% (3)

4. Nevada-McCain .9% (4)

5. Virginia-McCain 1.0% (5)

6. Ohio-McCain 1.1% (6)

7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.2% (7)

8. Florida-McCain 2.3% (8)

9. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.6% (10)

10. Michigan-Obama 3.8% (NR)

Dropped Out from Yesterday: Wisconsin (9)

Presidential Projection 9.23.08

2008-09-23T15:59:00.003-04:00

Obama/Biden 273 (51.3) McCain/Palin 265 (47.7)

With Tossups: Obama 260-227-51

Switches from September 13th: +9 Obama

McCain to Obama: Colorado

Swing in Projected Popular Vote since September 13th: +5.2 Obama

Narrow Range: McCain 278-260 to Obama 311-227

Wide Range: McCain 309-229 to Obama 338-200

State by State Polling Only: Obama 286-252

State by State Projection

Safe Obama (26)

Washington D.C., Massachusetts, Vermont, Hawaii, Rhode Island

Solid Obama (62)

Illinois, Maryland, New York

Likely Obama (69)

California, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine

Leans Obama (103)

New Jersey, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, New Mexico, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin

Tilts Obama (13)

New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts McCain (38)

Nevada, Virginia, Ohio

Leans McCain (69)

Florida, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia

Likely McCain (41)

Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota

Solid McCain (78)

Texas, Arizona, Mississippi, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alaska

Safe McCain (39)

Kansas, Nebraska, Alabama, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah

Top Ten Turnover Targets

1. Iowa-Obama 7.1% (1)
2. New Mexico-Obama 4.7% (2)
3. Colorado-Obama .9% (3)
4. Nevada-McCain .5% (5)
5. Virginia-McCain .7% (8)
6. Ohio-McCain 1.3% (4)
7. New Hampshire-Obama 1.9% (7)
8. Florida-McCain 2.4% (10)
9. Wisconsin-Obama 3.4% (NR)
10. Pennsylvania-Obama 3.6% (9)

Dropping Out: Michigan (6)

Senate Ranking 9.21.08

2008-09-21T20:16:00.002-04:00

Senate +5 DEM

Current Senate: 50-49-1 DEM (+2 GOP if Obama wins, S.Q. or +1 GOP, contingent on Lieberman, if McCain wins for takeover)

Projected Senate: 55-44-1 DEM (+5 DEM)

Narrow Range: 54-45-1 DEM (+4 DEM) to 57-42-1 DEM (+7 DEM)

Wide Range: 50-49-1 DEM (S.Q.) to 60-39-1 DEM (+10 DEM)

With Tossups Unassigned: 54-42-1-3 DEM

With Tossups Split 50/50: 55-44-1 (+5 DEM) to 56-43-1 (+6 DEM)

Current Tossup Winning Split: GOP 2 DEM 1

Current Tossup Defending Split: GOP 3 DEM 0

Strong Chance of Turnover (Leans Attacking Party or Better) DEM 4 GOP 0

Seats in Play (Leans Defending Party or Worse) DEM 10 GOP 1

Likelihood of Turnover: .2%

Switches from September 13th: None

Republican Defenses

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

Virginia

Leans Democratic

New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado

Tilts Democratic

Alaska

Tilts Republican

Oregon, Minnesota

Leans Republican

North Carolina, Mississippi (Special), Maine

Solid Republican/Potentially Competitive

Kentucky

Democratic Defenses

Leans Democratic

Louisiana

Solid Democratic/Potentially Competitive

New Jersey

Top 10 Senate Turnover Targets

1. Virginia (1)

2. New Mexico (2)

3. New Hampshire (3)

4. Colorado (4)

5. Alaska (5)

6. Oregon (7)

7. Minnesota (6)

8. Louisiana (8)

9. North Carolina (10)

10. Mississippi (Special) (9)